A well anticipated winter storm ended up taking a track further southeast of the area then forecast which kept the heavier precipitation east of Kansas. Even so, some areas of eastern Kansas ended up with around one quarter inch of ice along with around an inch of snow and sleet from this storm.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A well anticipated winter storm ended up taking a track further southeast of the area then forecast which kept the heavier precipitation east of Kansas. Even so, some areas of eastern Kansas ended up with around one quarter inch of ice along with around an inch of snow and sleet from this storm. The storm began Sunday night the 27th and lasted into midday on the 28th of December.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 27, 5:13 PM CST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Topeka KS 513 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 326 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 The main mid/upper level low pressure currently located over TX will lift over eastern OK and eventually MO tonight and into tomorrow. At the surface high pressure continues to slowly migrate across the northern US, while the cold front pushes into the MS valley. This has kept the pressure gradient strong over the area so expect that this will continue into tomorrow. Wind gusts during this period remain around 15 to 25 with gusts up to 30 mph. Later this evening moisture and lift begins to push northward. Most of the measurable precip will hold off until after 10 pm this evening. Most locations area are below freezing, but there is still a warm nose present over the southeast half of the forecast area. So expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain to spread northward through the early morning hours. Further northwest there the warm nose is weak or non- existent therefore expect more snow in those areas. During the early morning hours soundings indicate a decent warm nose over portions of eastern KS so there may be a period of freezing rain mainly along and east of a line from Emporia to Topeka. At some point the cold air depth is more supportive of sleet, which will limit the ice accumulation. Sleet may mix in with snow as far west as a line from Junction city to Marysville. North central KS should stay snow through most of the event. During the late morning hours the warm nose will begin to cool as the system lifts into MO. Snow should become more likely where there is a mixture of sleet and this zone should transition from west to east. Locations with mainly snow could experience blowing snow and reduced visibilities through the day. By early afternoon most locations will change over to mainly snow. Surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing looks to be an issue in east central KS. This is where freezing rain changes to rain and sleet, since the warm layer at the surface is rather shallow. The axis of heavy snow will be somewhere near Manhattan to Marysville line with a possible shift east or west. The transition zone to sleet could limit snow totals and lead to a sharp cut off of heavy snow. From about 10 pm to about 3 pm tomorrow expect periods of moderate precipitation leading to quick accumulations. The uncertainty will be the overall track of the main system which could shift the totals slightly. There is the potential for instability and frontogenesis banding. The banding is tough to nail at this point, but somewhere over the forecast area orientated from north to south is a good bet. Instability is possible near the upper low as a dry slot works all the way to the northwest side of the system. Therefore could not rule out thunder with any of this precip. The NAM wants to shut the precip off within this dry slot across eastern KS, and the GFS track is the most eastern track, so these tendencies have no been favored and remain most uncertain. Winds will decrease through tomorrow night, but so will the temperatures. Wind chills could reach near zero Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 326 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 By Tuesday, the system that impacted the area this weekend will be situated over the Great Lakes region, while a second closed upper level low will reside over the southwest CONUS. Surface high pressure moves over NE Kansas Tuesday keeping conditions dry and cold. The previously mentioned upper level low is forecast broaden and move as a trough over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation will fall in the form of snow. With this system passing over the area so quickly and only very weak lift associated with this trough, snow amounts would be very light, generally below a half an inch. A dry forecast remains for the rest of the week and weekend as high pressure noses into Kansas from the southwest on Wednesday. The main focus the rest of the week will be the cold temperatures. High temperatures Tuesday through Friday stay near the mid 20s with lows in the low teens and single digits. Wind chills through the week will be near or below zero. The weekend does warm up slightly with highs slightly above freezing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 513 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 Models have not handled the scattering out of low clouds well this afternoon. But with MVFR CIGS not far away, think it is only a matter of time before they move back in. Initial forecast is a bit of a best guess when the MVFR CIGS come back in. Otherwise the challenge is to forecast onset of precip and type. NAM and RAP forecast soundings show the initial precip should be all snow until the warm nose moves in before dawn. Even then low level temps should remain cold enough for refreezing and sleet being the primary weather type. With a well mixed boundary layer, think CIGS should remain MVFR, but there could be a period of IFR VSBY as snow falls overnight. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...Heller AVIATION...Wolters
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 331 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-282145- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 331 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY MAINLY AFTER 6PM. THE GREATEST RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A EMPORIA TO TOPEKA TO HIAWATHA LINE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO SENECA LINE SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM LATER TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A EMPORIA TO TOPEKA TO HIAWATHA LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO SENECA LINE WHILE AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNDOWN MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
EM reported around one quarter inch of ice along with an inch of sleet and snow. Sporadic power outages were reported across the county.
EM reported around one quarter inch of ice along with an inch of sleet and snow.
Media reported around one quarter inch of ice along with an inch of sleet and snow in Ottawa.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 607534, 607535, 607536.