Hail in Iowa, July 13, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INCREDIBLY HIGH SFC DPTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BEING POOLED ACRS THE DVN CWA...AND ENOUGH
AMBIENT HEATING FOR TEMPS AROUND 90. THIS MAKING FOR EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 6000 TO OVER 7000 J/KG ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA INTO CENTRAL IL. EARLIER 18Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM WEDGE/CAP ALOFT CENTERED AROUND H85 MB KEEP A LID
ON THE CAULDRON FOR NOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ORIENTED
FROM NNW-TO-SSE HAS MIGRATED TO THE EAST ACRS WI INTO EAST CENTRAL
IL AND MAY BE A CONVECTIVE FOCUS OR STORM HIGHWAY LATER THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S. HIGH BASED/ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SKIRTING EAST ACRS FAR
NORTHERN MO. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING VORT COMPLEX ALOFT MOVING
EAST- SOUTHEAST ACRS ND INTO CENTRAL MN ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX READINGS OUT
THERE...OF COURSE WILL LET THE PREVIOUSLY UPGRADED HEAT WARNING
AND LINGERING ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 8 PM CDT. STILL FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IF ANYTHING INITIATES LOCALLY WILL BE IN THE LINGERING
CU FIELD OF NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWESTERN
IL...WITH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM DBQ IA TO PRINCETON IL MORE
FAVORABLE. IF IT GOES...COULD BE EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT TAKING OFF NOW ACRS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO
NORTHWEST WI COULD HAVE A CHANCE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENTLY
IDENTIFIED MEAN STEERING FLOW ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SHOULD
TAKE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW TO DRY DPTS
OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

TUESDAY...SECONDARY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES TO LEE OF PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE MAY KICK OFF MORE SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS BY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA. STILL A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BUT NOT QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE DPTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

QUICK LOOK AT THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT MAIN CHC OF ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL COME THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT IS
PROGGED TO COME ACRS THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION.
EARLY INDICATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TIME AND PROPAGATION PATH
CORRECT. AFTER THAT...LONGER RANGE PROGS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATION ACRS THE LOWER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY MAY SHUNT THE MAIN
STORMS TRACK JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LIKE A MORE NORMAL
DEEP SUMMER PATTERN...ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN AND INTO WI/GRT LKS. BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OR A PORTION OF AN MCS BLEEDING
DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONE OF THE WEEKEND NIGHTS OR EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THIS PATTERN ALSO TO BRING HIGH HEAT POTENTIAL WITH
TEMPS UP IN THE 90S WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-CLINTON-
     JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-WHITESIDE.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
428 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-140930-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
428 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS...AND ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A RISK OF
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE RISK IS
GREATER EAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO THE QUAD CITIES TO
BURLINGTON IOWA AND RELATIVELY LOWER TO THE WEST.

EXTREME HEAT...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST HEAT
EPISODE OF THE SEASON...WE HAVE HAD LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO
ACCLIMATE...THUS IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR
INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE ACTIVE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A SEVERE THREAT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE AROUND 100.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WOLF/08