A slow moving frontal boundary allowed for continuous rainfall through the day of July 7th. Saturated ground conditions allowed for slow rising flood waters to impact Jay County, after and estimated 1 to 4 inches of rain had fallen.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A slow moving frontal boundary allowed for continuous rainfall through the day of July 7th. Saturated ground conditions allowed for slow rising flood waters to impact Jay County, after and estimated 1 to 4 inches of rain had fallen.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 3:14 PM EST, 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 414 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. A COOLER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WENT WITH AN ISO T MENTION THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY ENDING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MIN T FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THEREFORE...WENT WITH POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 00Z. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 POTENT SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR W TX THIS AFTN WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. AGGRESSIVE THETA-E ADVTN NWD OF POLEWARD OF 50KT LLJ SHLD PROMOTE VIGOROUS ASCENT OVERTOP NWD RTNG FNTL BNDRY AND XPC WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER AS A RESULT. THUS BRIDGED POPS HIGHER ALL AREAS W/POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ESP SHLD CLOSED LOW LVL CYCLONIC CIRC INDEED DVLP AS MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW. OTRWS THIS SYS QUICKLY EXISTS NEWD ON THU AND MINORS OUT IN PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLW. DIFFICULT TEMP FCST W/LINGERING BUT DECAYING CLD CVR IN THE AFTN AND POST FNTL CAA WEDGE YET KEPT W/PRIOR NOTION OF GENERALLY MID 70S. BRIEF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING FOLLOWS THROUGH FRI BFR GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SW DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF WRN US TROUGH. POP DETAILS REMAIN QUITE MURKY FM MID-LT PD W/SIG DETAIL DIFFS NOTED AMG MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH ESSENTIALLY SMOOTHED BLENDED SOLUTION TO ELIMINATE NOISE BUT RETAIN OTRWS IMPLIED UNSETTLED TONE ESP IN LIGHT OF PENCHANT FOR A RING OF FIRE PATTN TO DVLP ALG NE PERIPHERY OF RETROGRADING UPR RIDGE. WITHIN THIS TRANSITION...SEASONABLE WARM TEMPS XPCD TO RTN THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF KSBN EARLY THIS AFTN...W/ DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR BY 20Z. COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING THROUGH KFWA...WITH CONTINUED -SHRA THROUGH 21Z. WHILE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFWA THROUGH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AT 00Z...UPSTREAM OBS HINT THAT A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN...THEREFORE WENT WITH TEMPO IFR IN TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...VEERING EASTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003. MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046. && SYNOPSIS...NG SHORT TERM...NG LONG TERM...T AVIATION...NG VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 428 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 INZ033-034-082030- BLACKFORD-JAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND 428 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015- 016-024-025-082030- ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI- MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI- WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH- HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT- ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART... GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER... AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE... COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO... BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER... HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION... DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER... HILLSDALE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE... NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT... DELPHOS...LIMA 428 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX INZ003-MIZ077-082030- LA PORTE-BERRIEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN 428 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HIGH WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-082030- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 428 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
447 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 PM HEAVY RAIN MILLERSBURG 41.53N 85.69W
07/07/2015 M1.24 INCH ELKHART IN COCORAHS
1.24 INCHES RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL
&&
LASHLEYThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Events at the county fairgrounds closed due to flooding. Up to 30 inches of water reported in some areas of the fairgrounds. Several county roads closed. Radar estimated 1 to 4 inches of rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 594520.