Following dry weather of nearly one month, a period of rather widespread and above normal occurrence of agricultural wildfires corresponded to the period of Fall harvest. During the period from October 12 through 20th, a combination of very low humidity, strong winds, dry harvested and unharvested fields, and sunshine brought dangerous fire weather conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
Following dry weather of nearly one month, a period of rather widespread and above normal occurrence of agricultural wildfires corresponded to the period of Fall harvest. During the period from October 12 through 20th, a combination of very low humidity, strong winds, dry harvested and unharvested fields, and sunshine brought dangerous fire weather conditions. These conditions allowed many fires to spread to hundreds of acres of farmland before being contained.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 11:53 AM CST, 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 750 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THIN BAND OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON RADAR APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MORE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITHIN H7 FGEN BAND. 12Z RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR WITHIN SUB CLOUD LAYER AND THUS MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING GROUND BUT SOME SPRINKLES LIKELY AND HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIVER. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST CWA AT 2 AM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES WAS USHERING IN VERY MILD CONDITIONS. JUST HOW MILD... TEMPS AT 2 AM WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH WERE THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY... AND AROUND THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS POOLING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS NOT MUCH FANFARE WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. MSAS SHOWED A DEEP 983 MB LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLD AIR EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FOCUS IS WITH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EARLY THIS AM EXITING THE FAR EAST CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS THEN BACK A BIT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AM AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF MODELS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT MAINLY TRACE QPF AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA... BUT BANKING ON DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ON VEERED FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH... WITH SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FAVORED ALONG/N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SITES NORTH REACHING NEAR OR TOUCHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WINDS... MAINLY FOR THE SUSTAINED WIND (AROUND 30 MPH) BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORY ATTIM. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SLUG OF COOLER AIR... WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S/NR 70 NORTH TO SOME MID 70S FAR SOUTH/EAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH MID AM FOLLOWED BY SUNNY SKIES... THEN THIS AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE SOME CUMULUS WITH BETTER COVERAGE FAVORED NORTH NEAR WRAP-AROUND OF PASSING CYCLONE AND OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY WITH POCKETS OF PARTLY SUNNY NORTH. THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIELD FIRES... DETAILED IN THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. TONIGHT... WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING CYCLONE. MODELS DEPICT LINGERING GRADIENT (WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH) FOR SUFFICIENT BL MIXING TO KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED ARE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP THURSDAY AND THEN THE SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SEES HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATE TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...H5 NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY A CLIPPER TYPES SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWER OF ALL THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN AND MOST OF THE MEMBERS. REGARDLESS OF THIS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS STILL INDICATIVE OF A H7 FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS THE AREA. OF NOTE IS AN EXTREMELY DRY LAYER BELOW H7. THIS HAS LEAD ME TO CONTINUE A SCHC OF POPS AS MUCH OF ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY FALL AS VIRGA SINCE SATURATION OF THE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE WITH A FAST MOVING WAVE. AFTER THIS...MUCH COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO THE REAL FIRST CHANCE FOR FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GEM WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER WARMUP FROM THIS COMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 MID DECK CLOUD RIBBON WITH FINE-LINE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. IN IT/S WAKE...MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE TURBULENT LOW TO MID LEVELS. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO NEAR 30 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 37 KTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80...WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN EXPECT SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS TO DROP OUT BUT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS MAINTAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WELL INTO THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM STRATOCU DECK ROTATING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF MN...EXPECT IT TO PRODUCE SCT TO BKN COVERAGE AT DBQ AND CID BUT TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE VFR LEVELS EVEN AFTER DARK. SOME OF THE MORE BULLISH MODELS EVEN BRING THIS DECK DOWN TOWARD THE MLI SITE AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 2K FT AGL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AROUND 30-35 KTS. ..12.. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXISTS TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELDS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE THE 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. DRY AGRICULTURAL FIELDS WILL ESSENTIALLY PROVIDE NEARLY 100 PERCENT CURED FUELS...WHILE OUR SEASONAL GRASSES ARE STILL ONLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT CURED...OR MOSTLY GREEN. THIS EFFECTIVELY RESULTS IN GFDI REACHING INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA... BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE DRY CORN AND BEAN FIELDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE DANGER IN SUITE OF PRODUCTS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...GIBBS AVIATION...12 FIRE WEATHER...05
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 403 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-130915- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 403 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELDS. OUTDOOR BURING SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED DUE TO CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 709 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-121700- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 709 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 ...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY... WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELDS WITH DRY...UNHARVESTED CROPS. IN THESE CONDITIONS ANY FIRE WILL BE ABLE TO GROW AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. THEREFORE...ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED AND POSTPONED TO ANOTHER DAY.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1202 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-130000- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 1202 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 ...HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE FOR MAINLY AGRICULTURAL FIELDS WITH DRY...UNHARVESTED CROPS. IN THESE WINDY DRY CONDITIONS ANY FIRE WILL BE ABLE TO GROW AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. THEREFORE...ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED AND POSTPONED TO ANOTHER DAY.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Field fires were reported by emergency management across Henry county, as well as other counties in northwest and west central Illinois. These fires impacted roads and extensively burned some already harvested fields.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 606554.