A cold front produced a complex of thunderstorms producing heavy rain with one flash flood event in west central Illinois.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A cold front produced a complex of thunderstorms producing heavy rain with one flash flood event in west central Illinois.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 6:45 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 745 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING OVER OK AND AR IS ORIENTING THE RING OF FIRE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ARCING AROUND NORTHERN MO-SOUTHERN IA INTO OHIO. STORMS THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MO ARE FORMING ALONG CONVERGENT 850 MB BOUNDARY WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER MCS IS FIRING OVER KS WHICH MAY PERSIST AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING QPF TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE MAIN SHOW IS FURTHER SOUTH...AMOUNTS IN OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE... THOUGH CLOUDINESS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE CURRENT NORTHERN MO MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WHILE KS SYSTEM COULD PROGRESS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...STORMS MAY FIRE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY... BUT SINCE IT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS POINT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW DAYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A RISK FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ADVERTISED BY MODELS WITH VARYING LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE. ON THE BULLISH END...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAMMER OUR CWA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...THROUGH STRONG OVER RUNNING OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE SOUTH...MEANWHILE...MOST OTHER MODELS ARE FAR WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOMEWHAT SOUTH. IN THE END...I THINK THE CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODEL BLEND PROVIDES...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY TO BRING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED RAINS TO OUR NORTHERN 1/2. FOR THIS REASON...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER END OF CHANCE MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ENDING ANY RAIN THREAT. AFTER A MILD AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID DAY MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A NICE REPRIEVE FROM SUMMER HEAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE ACTIVE STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO BRING SEVERAL VERY PLEASANT DAYS TO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THEN MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THIS RETURN FLOW...A MODEL BLEND BRINGS IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER CHANCE POPS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A VERY LOOSELY BASED FORECAST ON THINKING A BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE...WHEN IT MAY EASILY NOT BE NEAR IOWA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR MATURE MCS ACTIVITY TO ROLL SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION BEYOND FRIDAY. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE MIDWEST ONCE AGAIN. ERVIN && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 741 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TAF SITES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD... THOUGH SPOTTY MVFR FOG AND LOW CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BRL COULD REDUCE BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP CID...DBQ AND MLI IN THE CLEAR. BUT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP SOUTH OF BRL AND BE THE FOCUS FOR LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...WOLF SHORT TERM...WOLF LONG TERM...ERVIN AVIATION...WOLF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 349 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200900- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 349 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WOLF/ERVIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
ILC067-109-187-191300-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-
649 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
...A HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
AT 645 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
CENTERED NEAR BARDOLPH AND MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
STORM HAS PRODUCED RADAR-ESTIMATED RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
IN THE LAST HOUR OVER PARTS OF MCDONOUGH...SOUTHERN WARREN AND
NORTHEAST HANCOCK COUNTIES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCLUDE...
MACOMB...BUSHNELL...COLCHESTER...LA HARPE...ROSEVILLE...
BLANDINSVILLE...GOOD HOPE...PRAIRIE CITY...BARDOLPH...TENNESSEE...
SCIOTA...NEW PHILADELPHIA...ADAIR...LITTLE SWAN LAKE...WALNUT
GROVE...GREENBUSH...FOUNTAIN GREEN...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...ARGYLE
LAKE STATE PARK AND WEBSTER.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 4044 9110 4064 9091 4064 9079 4073 9079
4072 9044 4035 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1145Z 289DEG 27KT 4053 9058
WOLFPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
830 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0828 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW MACOMB 40.48N 90.69W
07/19/2015 M2.00 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE FORT MADISON 40.64N 91.33W
07/19/2015 M1.70 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
DCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
846 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0843 AM HEAVY RAIN NE GOOD HOPE 40.56N 90.67W
07/19/2015 M3.28 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE 6AM.
&&
DCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
850 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0850 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.60N 91.84W
07/19/2015 M2.00 INCH CLARK MO TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL BETWEEN 3 AM AND 630 AM. THERE WAS NO THUNDER OR
LIGHTNING.
&&
DCThe Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:49 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water flowed over US 67 between Main Street and Vine Street in the town of Good Hope. Water also covered US 67 south the junction with Highway 9. A spotter also reported water in at least one basement in the town of Good Hope.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597070.