Canadian high pressure brought a very cold airmass into central Illinois on February 14th. While temperatures hovered in the teens, strong northwesterly winds of 15 to 25mph produced wind-chill readings from 0 to -5F.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
Canadian high pressure brought a very cold airmass into central Illinois on February 14th. While temperatures hovered in the teens, strong northwesterly winds of 15 to 25mph produced wind-chill readings from 0 to -5F. Two people died in Morgan County as a result of prolonged exposure to the cold.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 11:19 PM CST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 825 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 Latest surface analysis indicating the next Arctic cold front was located over central Wisconsin southwest through north central Iowa and is expected to sweep through our area between 6 and 9 AM Saturday morning accompanied by scattered snow showers and a strong northwest wind, gusting as high as 40 mph at times. Already starting to see strong 3 hourly pressure rises across North Dakota indicating the front should accelerate southeastward tonight with the latest short term models continuing to suggest the boundary will be south of most of our area by early afternoon. Weak shortwave noted on the water vapor loop over western North Dakota has a small area of light snow associated with it as it tracks southeast. HRRR and Rapid Refresh models indicate the better threat for snow showers with this weak wave would be over west central thru southeast IL tomorrow morning. HRRR indicating around 0.05 inches of QPF associated with this band of light snow which would be just under an inch of snow. However, this situation is very similar to a couple of days ago in which we saw some very narrow but intense bands of snow showers just behind the Artic boundary, which lasted less than an hour in most locations with most areas seeing less than a half inch. The main concern with this particular front will be with the strong pressure rises immediately behind the boundary tomorrow morning suggesting about a 2 to 4 hour period of strong winds with gusts around 40 mph out of the northwest tomorrow morning into the mid afternoon hours. Whatever we see with respect to light snow should be well south of our area by mid afternoon as the Arctic air mass settles across the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend. Have made some minor tweaks to the early evening temperatures and POPs, especially across west central IL just before dawn Saturday. The rest of the forecast is right on track this evening. Updated ZFP out by 900 PM. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 Arctic cold front currently across the Upper Midwest will drop southward into north-central Illinois tonight, reaching the I-74 corridor by dawn Saturday. Models continue to depict a band of snow-showers accompanying the front as it quickly passes late tonight into Saturday morning. 18z NAM time-height cross-sections show strong lift within the 850-700mb layer along/ahead of the boundary, but do not indicate full saturation within the profile. Despite lack of deep moisture, think low-level convergence/lift will be sufficient to trigger scattered snow-showers across the northern KILX CWA late tonight. Have therefore included chance PoPs along/north of I-74 after 3am. Further south, dry conditions will prevail through the night. Winds will initially be W/SW this evening, but will veer to the N/NW and increase markedly once the front passes. Will likely see wind gusts in the 30-35mph range across the far north by dawn. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the lower to middle 20s, but will drop into the teens north of a Canton to Bloomington-Normal line. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 A vigorous clipper system, currently diving across the Canadian Prairies, will impact central and southeast Illinois on Saturday. While the center of the surface low and better moisture will pass well north/east of the forecast area, the gusty winds associated with the system and cold temperatures in its wake will be featured prominently across the area. The trailing cold front will dive across the area early Saturday, with temperatures falling through most of the day. There will be minimal moisture for the front to work with as it dives through the area, but it should still be able to squeeze out a few snow showers or flurries as forecast soundings suggest ice crystals will be present. Still looking like a a Wind Chill Advisory will be needed later Saturday night into Sunday morning across the far northern portion of the forecast area, especially along/north of the I-74 corridor. Even in areas where advisory criteria will not be specifically met, it will be bitterly cold Saturday night into Sunday. Another wave will dive toward the area by late Sunday into early Monday, but this one is progged to come ashore along the Pacific Northwest. As such, the best forcing/snow chances with this system should stay just to our south. That being said, at least the southern fringe of the forecast area is in line to be impacted by some jet/frontogenetical forcing associated with this wave. Still expect most of the forecast area to be missed by this wave, but snow accumulations as high an inch or two could be seen south of I-70. The additional energy that follows the lead Pacific wave is now expected to stay well south of the forecast area Monday/Tuesday as the North American trof broadens to encompass much more of the continent. No additional disturbances of consequence are currently expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures will remain below to well below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 Low VFR cigs have dominated this evening and expect that to continue until around 09z when a frontal boundary will approach the area with occasional MVFR cigs with scattered snow showers. At this point, it appears the better threat for a more organized band of light snow will be over west central thru southeast IL in the 11z-16z time frame where cigs and vsbys may drop briefly to IFR. May see several narrow but intense bands of snow showers develop towards dawn and track quickly from northwest to southeast. Just where these narrow bands will setup and which TAF site they will affect is still not that clear cut at this time. Will add a tempo group for SPI and DEC for now and see how the band to our northwest eventually sets up to see if we need to add lower cigs and vsbys further north late tonight as well. Not looking at much in the way of any accumulations with around a half inch possible in a few locations tomorrow morning. Any snow showers and lower vsbys/cigs will quickly move from northwest to southeast during the morning and be out of the TAF area by 18z with some scattered stratocumulus developing in the strong cold advection pattern Saturday afternoon. Southwest winds tonight of 10 to 15 kts will shift into the northwest by 11z in PIA and by 14z in CMI. Look for a rapid increase in wind speeds tomorrow morning with prevailing speeds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts as high as 35 kts at times tomorrow morning into the mid afternoon hours of Saturday before we see the winds gradually diminish towards sunset Saturday evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Bak AVIATION...Smith
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 352 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-141200- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND- DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN- MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT- RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION- WOODFORD- 352 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH READINGS AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THERE REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THAT STORM...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT. BARNES
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.
An elderly man and woman died in rural Morgan County as a result of hypothermia. Temperatures were in the teens and wind-chills were around zero at the time of their deaths.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold/Wind Chill, Morgan | 2015-02-14 | 82 | Female | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
| Cold/Wind Chill, Morgan | 2015-02-14 | 92 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 560138.