Funnel Cloud in Idaho, May 15, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE AN
AREA OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PANHANDLE BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A MORNING STORM
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS CRANKING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. IT WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE MODELS
DO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS SO WE KEPT THAT IN
THE FORECAST. IT'S NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. STRONGER CELLS TODAY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE DRY
AIR WORK INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER INITIALLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH ARCING BACK
ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY. EVERYONE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TOMORROW. IT WILL BE
COOL AGAIN...SO THUNDERSTORMS MAY END UP NOT HAPPENING AT ALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMERS BUT STILL RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE.
WINDS OVERALL WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD
REQUIRE ANY HEADLINES. WE COULD SEE INCREASED GUSTS WITH STORMS.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER STORMY ONCE AGAIN. THE MODELS
ALL SHOW TWO LARGER SYSTEMS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE AFFECTING US. AS WITH THIS STORM AND
OTHERS LIKE IT...WE WILL FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER
AS TIMING PRECIPITATION BANDS AND ANY DRY SLOTS AT THIS TIME IS
FUTILE. EVERY MODEL RUN WILL LIKELY OFFER SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR
THOSE TYPES OF DETAILS. WE WILL SEE A BIT MORE WARMING POSSIBLY
BUT STILL AT OR JUST A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE..  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL
CEILINGS/VIS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&