Wildfire in Hawaii, May 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. TRADES
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. VARIABLE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SEA BREEZES
ARE ON TAP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT BRINGING INCREASING
WINDWARD SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING WINDWARD AREAS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG
ISLAND WHILE KAUAI REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LEEWARD AREAS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT
WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MIXED IN. THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY AS SEAS BREEZES PUSH MOISTURE
UP THE LOWER SLOPES. THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF NIGHTTIME CLEARING
WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK OVER THE
KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE IS PROVIDING BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES THE HIGH EASTWARD.
EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW... AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES WILL FORM ACCOMPANIED BY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND NIGHTTIME
CLEARING. THE WEAK FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE FROM THE BIG
ISLAND TO REACH SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLAND.

TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT BRINGING SOME
ENHANCED SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE N AND NE OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN BREEZY EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. RANDOM PASSING
PATCHES AND SOME CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR NOW AND THEN ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDES. BUT
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
IMMEDIATE S THRU W OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ALL ISLANDS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE SCA IS
POSTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

A SMALL SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A LARGER SOUTH SWELL
ON THE WAY FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE UH/PACIOOS AMERICAN SAMOA
BUOY STARTING PICKING UP ON THE SOUTH SWELL SUNDAY AND HAS REMAINED
STEADY AT 6 FEET 13 SECONDS SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE LONG PERIOD COMPONENT
OF THE SWELL WILL RUN AHEAD OF THE REST AND ARRIVE IN HAWAII
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MID-RANGE PERIOD SWELL WILL FILL-IN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY RAISING SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH SHORES TO NEAR THE MAY
AVERAGE. THE NORTH SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A SERIES OF
SMALL SWELLS THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE WIND- DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD
SWELL ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS
WEAKEN. PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND
FORECAST /SRDHFO/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FUJII...AVIATION