High Surf in Hawaii, January 6 to 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JAN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN LAND AND SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL WILL BE
ALMOST NONEXISTENT TONIGHT WITH A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK /1018 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT TRACKS STEADILY TO THE EAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH / NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. THE VEERING WINDS WILL
OCCUR AS THE HIGH TRACKS STEADILY EASTWARD ALONG 28N...OR ABOUT 400
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI.

THE WINDS ARE PUSHING A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 0.27 INCHES AT HILO AND 0.44 INCHES AT LIHUE WHICH IS A
QUITE RARE OCCURRENCE GIVEN THE NORMAL VALUES FOR JANUARY ARE AROUND
1.1 INCHES. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING CAUSED BY THE WINDS WILL NOT LIKELY ALLOW ANY
RECORD BREAKING LOWS ACHIEVED AT SEVERAL SITES THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS
GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AT WHICH TIME WE ANTICIPATE THE WINDS TO
WEAKEN. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND BECOME ESTABLISHED FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF KAUAI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH TRADE WINDS PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND. A MOSTLY DRY LAND AND SEA BREEZE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL BE
THE RESULT...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE WARM UP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS VEER EASTERLY...THEN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS
UP...WE MAY SEE STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IF THE
RIDGE DIVES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE BIG ISLAND...LIGHTER
WINDS WOULD PREVAIL THERE WHILE STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN ACROSS KAUAI. THIS REGIME ALSO TYPICALLY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH VOG FROM THE BIG ISLAND SPREADING TO THE OTHER ISLANDS...AND
OVER WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AIRMET FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE CONTINUES FOR THE LEE OF
THE ISLANDS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW NORTH WINDS UP
TO 30 KNOTS BELOW THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
DIRECTION AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE MOVE CLOSER. HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

OTHERWISE A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND PREDOMINATELY VFR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS...COUPLED WITH
ANTICIPATED NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS DUE IN THIS EVENING...WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS
AND SWELL WILL BOTH TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE EVENING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE INCREASED WINDS AND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BOOST SURF HEIGHTS TO
HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES TONIGHT. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN ANTICIPATION OF ITS ARRIVAL. SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

THE NORTH SWELL...ALONG WITH THE TRADE WINDS...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NEW LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING ON FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE SURF APPROACHING THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER NORTHWEST
SWELL...POSSIBLY REACHING WARNING LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORE
OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BRAVENDER