High Surf in Hawaii, December 27 to 28, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP ENHANCING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF THE LARGER
SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES. THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOMING
MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISSIPATING FRONT ABOUT 270 MILES N
OF KAUAI...WITH A LARGE AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN FIRM
CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER. THIS 1032 MB HIGH WILL KEEP BRINGING
STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND SPEEDS OVER KAHOOLAWE AND LANAI ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...THUS BOTH ISLANDS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
WIND ADVISORY. THE KOHALA AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MON DUE TO THE RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL FURTHER RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TRADES WILL REMAIN RATHER WET THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH PASSING
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF THE LARGER
SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM W TO E. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AGAIN TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE SUMMITS TONIGHT WOULD PRODUCE SNOW AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOW LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NW BY LATE TUE OR WED...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN A REPEAT OF THE CURRENT WINDY
TRADE REGIME AS THE HIGH DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT ONE.
THE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY TO THE E...AND A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL
DISRUPT THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND REGIME AND TURN THEM MORE
NORTHERLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE ALENUIHAHA AND PAILOLO CHANNELS IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL AT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT LEAST TODAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ NOW COVERS
ALL THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCOMING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL INCREASE THE COMBINED SEAS IN MOST AREAS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO THE NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHILE THE TRADES CONTINUE TO
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE TRADE
WINDS SUBSIDE...EXPECT THE ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES TO GRADUALLY LOWER. THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-
MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

REYNES