High Surf in Hawaii, August 4 to 7, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ON THE FRINGE OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO HAS STARTED
MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI TONIGHT. THE TRADES
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO
PASS NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TOMORROW AND NORTH OF OAHU AND
KAUAI THURSDAY. WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE STORM. TRADE WINDS WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE ISLANDS FRIDAY
NIGHT. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO WAS
ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF HILO AT 300 PM...MOVING WNW AT 8 MPH. THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
GUILLERMO. THE FORECAST HAS GUILLERMO REMAINING NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE ISLANDS TO JUSTIFY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG
ISLAND...MAUI COUNTY AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL ISLANDS OF MAUI
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 40 AND 240 NM FROM THE
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR
WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
RELATED TO GUILLERMO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ONCE GUILLERMO MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TRADE-WIND WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT TRACK FOR GUILLERMO HAS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY WEATHER
AND WIND PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IT WILL STILL BRING SOME
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF GUILLERMO KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE DRY AND STABLE.
MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF GUILLERMO HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI BRINGING MVFR COND. TCU AND CB MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
LOW VSBY IN HEAVY SHRA. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR MTN OBSC
ON THE BIG ISLAND. MORE AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH NOON THURSDAY AND FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES
OF MOLOKAI...OAHU AND KAUAI FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AS GUILLERMO
PASSES TO THE NORTH. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES
AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE WATERS...FROM
40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND THE
BIG ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS...THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE PAILOLO
CHANNEL.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR
EAST FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI...OAHU AND KAUAI.

&&

DONALDSON