A line of showers and thunderstorms moved across northeast Georgia during the morning. Brief damaging winds occurred as the line passed through the Clarkesville area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms moved across northeast Georgia during the morning. Brief damaging winds occurred as the line passed through the Clarkesville area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 5:43 AM EST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION.
THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND KEEP SKIES CLOUDIER THAN USUAL. SLIGHT
DRYING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS STATIONARY CONVERGENCE AXIS
REMAINS PREVALENT. STARTING TO SEE INCREASING LIGHTNING INTENSITY
IN THE CELLS NOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL GA WHERE BETTER MUCAPE IS
PRESENT. ANY CELLS THAT PUSH INTO THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA THIS
MORNING COULD PRODUCE THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THANKS TO AMPLE SHEARING AND INSTABILITY.
AS SUCH...SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC AREA
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AS THIS IS WHERE SHEARING WILL BE BEST THANKS TO
40-50KT LLJ. AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWS/SKY TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH OBS...LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A BROAD/DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE NEAR
TERM FCST PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE
EXTENDS IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE I40 CORRIDOR
OVER WEST/MIDDLE TN WESTWARD INTO AR/MO. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER THE TN VALLEY
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND
NORTHEAST GA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT REGIONS
OF NC/SC AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THUS POPS ARE FAIRLY
HEALTHY FOR RUSH HOUR WITH LIKELY LEVELS FAVORED ALONG THE I85/I26
CORRIDORS...WITH HIGH LEVEL CHANCE POPS FAVORED EAST OVER CLT AND
THE I77 CORRIDOR.
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MODELS FAVOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FCST AREA AS THEY SEEM TO BE CUTTING DOWN INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER THANKS TO THE ONGOING/MORNING CONVECTION. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...HOWEVER THINK
THE CAPE FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE A BIT MORE HOMOGENEOUS THAN
THE GUID LEADS ON AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIONWIDE.
SOUNDINGS DO EXHIBIT ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL. MOST IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER CONTINUES TO BE PWATS
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 2IN LEADING TO CONTINUED ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING THREATS...ALL OF WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. AS
FOR THE FCST...LIKELY POPS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT NORTHWARD
TO CATEGORICAL POPS NORTH OF I40. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BEST UPPER FORCING AND CONSEQUENT SURFACE
WAVE EJECT TO THE EAST...THEREFORE POPS WILL FALL OFF AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
CLOUDY SKIES LIMIT HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY...SFC LOW IS PUSHED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH CONCURRENTLY SHEARS OFF LEAVING A SLOW-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TO LINGER OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME SEMBLANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THOUGH IT IS
INITIALLY HARD TO IDENTIFY ANY DISTINCT SOURCE OF FORCING...WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED
VORTICES HIGHER ALOFT. ON SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY IS STRENGTHENED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH DAYS AND ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...WITH PWAT VALUES BEING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES.
WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY...AND PROFILES
WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL THRU THE PERIOD...SO SLOW MOVING AND/OR
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A CONCERN. POPS AND QPF ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER SUNDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE ENHANCED LLVL CONVERGENCE. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE
CWFA MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THRU ONTARIO...GRADUALLY ABSORBING
THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL
HOWEVER STILL BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS KEEPING TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
HEIGHTS RISE INTO MIDWEEK...ALLOWING POPS TO FALL BACK TO A TYPICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A NORMAL NOCTURNAL MINIMUM. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
CANADIAN LOW STALLS OVER THE TENN VALLEY WED OR WED NIGHT. GFS
DEPICTS THE FRONT HANGING UP IN THAT AREA AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. EC DIFFERS IN THAT THE FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA
JUST AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO
LIFT IT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. GFS IS THUS MORE UNSETTLED FOR THU
COMPARED TO THE EC. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS
TO OUR NORTH THU NIGHT AND PULLING THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME. THE RETURN TO SWLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPS...WITH AFTN MAXES
BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS TAF CYCLE.
INITIALIZED TAF AMIDST BKN MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SW WINDS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG SCATTERED SHRA CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN NC
HOLDING TOGETHER AND ARRIVING AT THE AIRFIELD AT APPROX
13Z...THEREFORE CARRIED A TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH ALONG WITH BKN
IFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE MORNING
AS POTENT LLJ IMPROVES...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTING AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE OPTED TO
PREVAIL 4SM TSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AMIDST 17KT SW GUSTS...SOME
GUSTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER ADJACENT TO DEEPER
CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND 00Z AS PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FORCING AND SURFACE WAVE EJECT NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE HOWEVER WITH SLIGHT TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS AS IT PERTAINS TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALIZED
ALL TAFS WITH LIGHT SW WINDS UNDER MIXED MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG WITH
WX MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHRA AROUND THE REGION. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHEAR/INSTABILITY RAMP UP
AHEAD OF A POTENT SURFACE WAVE AND LLJ. THUS ALL SITES SEE
PREVAILING SHRA WITH VCTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY ON FRIDAY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL...LESS SO AT KHKY...ALL
THANKS TO STRONG LLJ DEVELOPMENT WHICH GUIDANCE FAVORS AT AROUND
40KTS/5KFT.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY...ENHANCED DIURNALLY.
AFTERWARDS...THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIURNAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION...AND ALSO EACH MORNING ATOP RAIN SOAKED AREAS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT MED 75% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 75% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 61% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LEV/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CDGHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 439 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>065-068>072-082-507>510-SCZ001>014- 019-040845- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 439 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...OR WHERE SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM OTHER RECENT HEAVY RAINS. ALSO...A FEW OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-501>506-040845- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD- BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- EASTERN MCDOWELL- 439 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 74. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...OR WHERE SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM OTHER RECENT HEAVY RAINS. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS TODAY MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. WIMBERLEY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-031315-
FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-STEPHENS GA-ELBERT GA-RABUN GA-HABERSHAM GA-
755 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MID MORNING...
AT 751 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE
SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER
HOUR...AND THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS MAY CHANNEL HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE GROUND. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE RAPIDLY. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.
&&
LAT...LON 3401 8294 3417 8310 3427 8312 3423 8335
3446 8340 3449 8354 3443 8362 3451 8367
3454 8362 3465 8366 3474 8362 3480 8368
3499 8355 3499 8313 3494 8311 3482 8331
3470 8335 3448 8304 3447 8287 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 268DEG 17KT 3426 8395
HGThe Greer radar (KGSP), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported multiple trees blown down, with part of the roof blown off a commercial building in downtown Clarkesvile. A spotter reported additional trees blown down off Highway 197 just south of town.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 594514.