Afternoon sea breeze storms and cool temperatures aloft once again set the stage for strong to severe storms across the Florida Peninsula. One storm produced a lightning strike which caused minor damage to a house.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Afternoon sea breeze storms and cool temperatures aloft once again set the stage for strong to severe storms across the Florida Peninsula. One storm produced a lightning strike which caused minor damage to a house.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 10:38 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... 15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF. FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON- HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT ONE STORM AT A TIME. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EARLIER SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOON IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST/I-4 CORRIDOR ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE RAPID INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS START TO FIRE BETWEEN 16-17Z...VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HIRES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS. EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... MESO SCALE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH A VENGEANCE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF COUNTRY WEAKENS AS NORTHERN STREAM MOVES AWAY AND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHINESS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS MEANS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS (WITHOUT SREF) WHICH MEANS 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 78 92 78 / 30 20 40 30 FMY 95 76 94 76 / 60 30 60 30 GIF 96 76 95 75 / 40 20 60 50 SRQ 94 77 92 77 / 30 20 40 20 BKV 95 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 30 SPG 94 80 92 80 / 30 20 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA LONG TERM...NOAH DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- 873-876-041415- SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY- COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO- COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA- COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS- INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE- INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS- CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND- COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- 1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. ADDITIONALLY...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT OF UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. NOAH/FLEMING
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
FLZ050-031800-
PINELLAS-
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY...
AT 127 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PINELLAS PARK. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...FEATHER SOUND...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...GANDY...
RIDGECREST...GULFPORT...TREASURE ISLAND...KENNETH CITY...MADEIRA
BEACH...VINOY PARK...SNELL ISLE AND CRESCENT LAKE.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 2797 8280 2798 8270 2796 8269 2796 8272
2794 8272 2791 8263 2789 8265 2787 8260
2786 8262 2784 8260 2784 8262 2783 8259
2781 8259 2774 8264 2778 8278 2783 8276
2779 8279 2780 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 272DEG 2KT 2788 8272
RAGThe Tampa radar (KTBW), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:29 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A lightning strike hit the chimney of a home located on Farrier Trail in Clearwater. Upon arrival, firefighters had to make some small holes in the ceiling of the home to investigate if anything was on fire or not. No fire resulted from the strike.
Tampa Fire Rescue reported damage to buildings at a business on Bonaker Drive near the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino. The first building had its roof blown off. The second one had its walls blown out, with its roof still intact.
Tampa Fire Rescue reported that a roof was blown off a building at the intersection of 56th Street and Hanna Avenue in East Tampa. There were also several power lines down in the same area. Pea sized hail was also reported at the location.
A local TV station relayed pictures of quarter size hail from the Auburndale area.
A trained spotter near Burnt Store Marina reported penny size hail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 575687, 575688, 575689, 575685, 575686.