Heavy rain developed during the evening and early morning hours across the mountains along and ahead of a cold front. Two to more than four inch rainfall amounts occurred in just a few hours near the North Carolina border.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Heavy rain developed during the evening and early morning hours across the mountains along and ahead of a cold front. Two to more than four inch rainfall amounts occurred in just a few hours near the North Carolina border. This amount of rainfall combined with wet soils and elevated stream levels caused by multiple recent rain events to produce localized flash flooding across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 7:02 PM EST, 2 hours 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
702 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH DRYING CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...AFTER EVALUATING 18Z NAM/GFS AS WELL AS
MESO MODELS...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE
EVENING. UPGLIDE IS NEARLY NIL AND MOISTURE WILL NOT YET BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY TO RESULT FROM THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER ONCE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS
TO LIFT NWD THRU THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT IT CAN BE EXPECTED THAT
PRECIP COULD FORM. BACKED OFF OVERNIGHT POPS A CATEGORY OR SO AND
GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET BY A FEW HOURS. HRLY DEWPOINT TRENDS
FROM THE AFTN SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CWFA SAW ENOUGH MOISTURE MIX
OUT IN THE EARLY AFTN THAT ANY FOG WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT UNTIL
THE FRONT AND/OR PRECIP ARRIVE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SERN BORDER
ZONE NEAREST THE FRONT...WHERE DEWPTS NEVER DROPPED OUT OF THE 60S.
AS OF 215 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN
TROUGH SWINGING INTO W TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SW FLOW
OPENING UP THE GULF TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE SFC BACKDOOR BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LAY OVER TO THE SE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MEAGER...WITH JUST
ISOLD SHRA CHANCES ALONG THE SE FRINGE THROUGH EVENING. MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL THEN BEGIN RETURNING OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A TRAIN OF EJECTING VORTICITY LOBES MOVING OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...UPGLIDE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STEADILY SURGE BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z...AND THEN MAXIMIZE THROUGH MIDDAY ON WED.
POP TRENDS WILL SHOW A STEADY INCREASE FROM THE S...WITH THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AND SRLY UPSLOPE ZONES SHOWING THE MAXIMUM QPF THROUGH LATE
DAY. ALTHOUGH TOTAL QPF GOING FORWARD SHOULD BE CONTAINED AT ABOUT
1.5 INCHES...HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA COULD ASSIST
FLOODING GIVEN THE PRIMED NATURE OF STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS.
TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
AS WEAK WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIDE NE UP THE FRONT TO THE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON WED...MORE OF THE PIEDMONT WILL BE EXPOSED
TO AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. LOWER PIEDMONT INSTABILITY OF 1000
TO 1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE FOR WED AFTN. IN ADDITION...850 MB FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY STOUT AT 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH WED...BUT WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO SW. A LOW END SEVERE THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH
DEEPER CONVECTION THAN OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS DAYS WED AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 PM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL USA...BETWEEN A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST...AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO FRIDAY...BY WHICH TIME AN UPPER HIGH
CLOSES OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NE...WHILE AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF TO
ITS SOUTH OVER NV. MEANWHILE...THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...WITH ZONAL FLOW
TO ITS SOUTH.
AT THE SURFACE...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...
WHILE GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE
LACKING...LIMITING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SE OF OUT AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...REACHING THE CAROLINA
AND GA COASTS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE IT NEARLY STALLS. THE
MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
INSTABILITY NOR SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OWING TO AN
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN CHANGE THAT SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...AN UPPER TROF SHOULD HAVE REPLACED
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THRU THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF...AND ACRS THE FCST AREA...ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS ALL THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO
THE S AND E. FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES
SLOWLY OFF THE E COAST THRU SUNDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND OVERHEAD ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TEMPS THAT COOL
DOWN TO SOMETHING CLOSE TO NORMAL...ALTHO PROBABLY ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE END AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE E COAST ON
TUESDAY...CARRYING THE SURFACE HIGH WITH IT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN IN ITS WAKE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE TIMING AND
UNCERTAINTY ARE SUCH THAT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE TUESDAY FCST
DRY...AS MOST LIKELY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH A
LOW DECK COULD FORM CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR FOG
EXPECTED BUT DEWPTS PROBABLY MIXED OUT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LOWER
VSBYS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS BACK IN. THIS WILL BRING A LOWERING
CIG TREND AND EVENTUALLY IFR AROUND DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHRA THRU THE MORNING. FRONT AND BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE
DO SHIFT NWD BY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. HOWEVER
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...POSING A THREAT OF TSRA. WITH
ROBUST WIND PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THRU EVENING. WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS ACRS THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
WILL REINTRODUCE RESTRICTIONS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CIGS. AS
SHOWERS FOLLOW...EXPECT PATCHY IFR FOG TO FORM AS WELL. THESE WILL
PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY RETREATING TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER N AND W FOLLOWING ENHANCED LLVL LIFT OVER BOUNDARY. AT
LEAST MVFR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUING
SHOWERS AND ADDITIONALLY TSRA POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTN...THIS BEING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE UPSTATE SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S TO SW.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRYING EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 98% MED 76% MED 73% HIGH 94%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 77% MED 77% HIGH 83%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 83%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 76% HIGH 83%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 79% MED 75% HIGH 83%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 85% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN CURRENTLY POSTED AREAS...AND WILL
ALSO BE EXPANDED TO THE ERN UPSTATE OF SC AND SRN PIEDMONT OF NC
INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA.
STREAM LEVELS AROUND THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL QPF GOING FORWARD MAY BE
LIMITED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WET ANTECENDENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER RATES IN CONVECTION ON WED
WILL YIELD A RENEWED FLOODING THREAT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 2 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TO THE REGION. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH MANY
AREAS WHERE 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ051>053-058-059-
062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
HYDROLOGY...HG/JATHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 257 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082- 507>510-SCZ001>014-019-302000- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE- GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 257 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS. ..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-056-057-501>506-302000- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- 257 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. 07
The Greer radar (KGSP), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:56 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After more than 3 inches of rain fell across the northeast Georgia mountains in just a few hours, public reported Mud Creek was overflowing its banks in the Sky Valley community, with Sky Valley Way being impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 613245.