A low pressure system formed south of the Alaska peninsula along a front from another low in the Bering Sea. This system moved northward into Bristol Bay, rapidly intensifying to 952 mb as it did so.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system formed south of the Alaska peninsula along a front from another low in the Bering Sea. This system moved northward into Bristol Bay, rapidly intensifying to 952 mb as it did so. The associated front brought unusually high winds to the Aleutian Range, Bristol Bay, and the Southcentral Region. Blizzard conditions were also experienced in Thompson Pass from this storm. Wind damage was reported across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 5:34 PM AKST, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 534 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2015 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THE OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM OF A BUILDING BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. STRONG ONSHORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR MAINLAND IS ADVECTING WARMER...MOISTER AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BROOKS RANGE IS AIDING IN THE RAPID TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NET RESULT OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. THESE EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AT NEAR OR OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS ATTRIBUTED IN PART TO THE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE LOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG ZONAL JET AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS JUST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF WHILE PREFRONTAL WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP IN SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CONTINUE AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE STATE. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...A DEFORMATION BAND MOVING NORTHWEST IS BRINGING PRIMARILY SNOW TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN DEPICTED CONSISTENTLY BY THE GFS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 950S MB RANGE. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING BASIN...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. WHILE MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DISCREPANCIES OVER THE LAST DAY WITH POSITIONS AND INTENSITY, WHAT HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW CENTER ITSELF. THIS BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE RISES WILL TRACK GENERALLY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...AND PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE ABRUPT PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE A SUDDEN ACCELERATION OF WINDS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WILL BE MOST EXAGGERATED IN AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. MOST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY WERE DONE WITH MANUAL EDITS THAT REFERENCED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THOUGH NO MODELS WERE COMPLETELY DISCARDED TODAY DURING FORECAST PREPARATION. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST BY MIDDAY WED...IT WILL BRING DANGEROUS WINDS TO SEVERAL PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THESE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS KACHEMAK BAY. WIND WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND ANCHORAGE AND WILL WORK THEIR WAY DOWN THE LOWER HILLSIDE TO EAST ANCHORAGE. ELSEWHERE SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO THOMPSON PASS...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND AND PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH WEAK RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF THU AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND AND RAIN. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... CURRENTLY THE DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN MOST COAST REMAINS THE MAIN IMMEDIATE TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SO EXPECTING TO SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO RAIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHEN COLDER AIR WILL START PUSHING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL LOW CROSSING INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRACKING NORTH ACROSS CAPE NEWENHAM AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE STRONGER DEEPER LOW SOLUTION. THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. EAST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES AS THE DOWNSLOPE/GAP WIND PHASE OF THE STORM DOMINATES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST AROUND 1 OR 2 AM CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST BETWEEN 6 TO 7 AM IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES IN BRISTOL BAY WILL ADDITIONALLY STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKING GUSTS 60 TO 80 MPH LIKELY IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND BRING GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH TO THE MORE EXPOSED COASTAL HEADLANDS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING. THE LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL COOL SHOWERY TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT REMAIN LESS ORGANIZED. THE NEXT LARGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SENDS CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVES FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY WHICH ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND SURROUNDING COAST. A SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES INLAND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SENDS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WHICH PULLS ANOTHER WARM AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AS IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN BERING. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 101 121 125 161. BLIZZARD WARNING 131. MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 130 131. STORM WARNING 119 120 129 132 136 137 138 139 141 150 160 180. GALES 128 140 155 165. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR LONG TERM...KH
4 high wind, 1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Bird Point Road Weather Information System measured a gust to 84 mph. No damage reports.
Homer Airport measured a gusts to 61 mph at 1153 p.m. Wind damage occurred in Soldotna, where a member of the public reported ripped shingles on roof, a powerline down, and a pontoon boat blown off of a trailer (via social media).
King Salmon had a record-breaking 77 mph wind gust at the ASOS. The village of Dillingham experienced damage when some siding blew off houses and a few shipping containers fell over.
McHugh Creek Road Weather Information System reported a gust of 98 mph at 5 a.m. Multiple reports of damage received, including a gutter being ripped of a house, downed trees, and multiple power outages.
Thompson Pass DOT reported blizzard conditions at the top of Thompson Pass. Two to three feet of snow had fallen and motorists were stranded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 607490, 607492, 607488, 607489, 607491.