A lingering surface trough combined with onshore flow and a moist airmass fueled afternoon strong storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A lingering surface trough combined with onshore flow and a moist airmass fueled afternoon strong storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 11:16 AM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1216 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .UPDATE... LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS SPINNING NEAR MOBILE BAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED WEAK FLOW BELOW 25000 FT...WITH AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING FEATURING A VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE UP THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FT). HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WIND SURGE OVER THE COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. NEAR CLIMO LATE AUGUST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING ON FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. && .AVIATION... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT SSI AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT GNV. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT SSI OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. && .MARINE... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES. SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 72 87 72 / 70 10 60 40 SSI 88 77 85 75 / 50 40 60 40 JAX 89 74 87 73 / 40 30 60 30 SGJ 88 75 86 75 / 50 40 60 30 GNV 91 72 88 71 / 60 20 60 20 OCF 91 73 89 72 / 60 30 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && NELSON/GUILLET/KENNEDY/COMBS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION- BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION- COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING- WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN- ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
GAZ133>135-281900-
JEFF DAVIS GA-BACON GA-APPLING GA-
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL APPLING...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND BACON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ALMA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...GRAHAM...DENTON AND NEW LACY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3152 8231 3144 8248 3144 8249 3147 8250
3147 8253 3154 8260 3156 8260 3156 8261
3158 8263 3167 8263 3167 8271 3172 8275
3186 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 150DEG 23KT 3156 8246
SHASHYThe Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down onto power lines. The cost of damage was estimated for the event to be included in StormData.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598998.