Scattered afternoon thunderstorms developed in an environment favorable for severe wet microbursts with high Wet Microburst Severity Index values.
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The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms developed in an environment favorable for severe wet microbursts with high Wet Microburst Severity Index values.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 8:00 AM CST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]... The 12Z TAE sounding showed quite an unstable environment with mid-level lapse rates of about 7 C/km and MUCAPE of over 2200 J/kg. This matches up well with the RUC forecast, which shows SBCAPE increasing to 2000-2500 J/kg over the next few hours. This morning's sounding showed a PWAT of only 1.61", which is fairly dry for us this time of year, but 10-15 knot 1000-700 mb flow will help increase low level moisture through the day and is a favorable seabreeze pattern for widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the area. Local satellite and radar imagery show storms already active across our eastern coastal waters and making further inland progression than originally forecast this morning, so bumped up PoPs a bit through the remainder of the daylight hours. Lingering dry air in the mid-levels and moderate instability could combine to produce an environment somewhat favorable for downbursts. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with gusty winds the main threat. && .Prev Discussion [653 AM EDT]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... An elongated area of +PV stretches from the Northeast, through the central Gulf of Mexico this morning. By tonight this area will split into two anomalies: a more progressive wave moving off the Northeast coast and what will be a quasi-stationary wave over the north-central Gulf. It won't be until Saturday night through Sunday that this wave lifts through the Southeast. At the surface, ridging will prevail across much of the eastern half of the country. Locally, the ridge will be quite disturbed due to the upper wave. Steering flow will generally have a south or southeasterly component yielding a rather wet seabreeze regime across the entire Tri-State area. Like the ridge, the seabreeze will be far from ideal and enhanced by the upper level anomaly. Thus, PoPs will be higher than normal through the weekend (50-70%). High PoPs and plentiful cloud cover will keep afternoon highs anywhere from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the middle 70s and not as pleasant as recent nights as moisture surges back into the region. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The main feature in the extended range forecast will be what is now Tropical Storm Erika. The eventual track will have a lot to do with how Erika holds together as it moves across Hispaniola today. The current track from NHC takes Erika south of the Bahamas before curving it north along the immediate east coast of Florida. A concerning trend in the dynamical models is a westward shift in the track. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF bring Erika into the eastern Gulf, but diverge greatly with respect to timing. There has been a lot of back and forth between the dynamical models and a great deal of uncertainty still exists. But, the potential for at least some sort of impacts locally from Erika appears to be increasing over the past 24 hours. A track off the east coast of Florida will bring minimal rain impacts to the Tri-State region, while a track over the Peninsula will likely bring a great deal of rain over the Suwannee Valley, and a track into the eastern Gulf would mean the potential for both heavy rain and wind impacts area-wide. Due to the uncertainty in this forecast and the latest trends, close attention should be given to the forecast over the next couple of days. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected this morning, with scattered to numerous showers and storms likely between 18Z and 03Z. These showers and storms may affect any of the terminals during that timeframe. This was handled in the TAFs with VCTS at all of the terminals. Confidence was high enough in a particular window where storms are more likely at VLD (21-01Z) to include a TEMPO group with some gusty winds and IFR visibility. Similar conditions (gusty winds and IFR visibility) will be possible in any storms today, but confidence was not high enough in timing at any of the other terminals to include additional TEMPO groups. .Marine... Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend. After that, it will depend on Erika's track. No matter the track, at least a slight increase in winds and possibly seas should be expected starting next week. .Fire Weather... An increase in low-level moisture will keep RH levels elevated and allow rain chances to increase from today into the weekend. .Hydrology... With a transition to a wetter pattern beginning today, expect average rainfall amounts on the order of 1-1.5" over the next three days. This will have little impact on area rivers. Next week, the potential for some very heavy rain exists depending on Erika's track. At this time, models suggest the possibility for 5-7" over a 48 hour period with Erika. Should the track shift west, these amounts could spread into the southeast Big Bend and south-central Georgia. Interests along the Suwannee River are urged to pay close attention to rainfall forecasts over the next few days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 91 75 86 73 90 / 50 40 60 30 50 Panama City 87 77 85 75 88 / 40 50 60 30 30 Dothan 91 73 85 70 89 / 50 40 60 30 30 Albany 91 73 86 71 89 / 50 40 60 40 40 Valdosta 91 74 87 73 90 / 50 40 60 30 50 Cross City 90 75 88 74 90 / 40 40 60 30 50 Apalachicola 89 77 85 76 87 / 50 60 60 40 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
The Ft Rucker radar (KEOX), 23 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:43 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Multipled trees and power lines were blown down near Abbeville.
Hail was estimated at quarter size in the Abbeville area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 600264, 600265.