Tornado in Florida, May 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVING ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN MOSTLY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, AND WEST, AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MID DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TODAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LARGER AND A FEW MAY
TURN INTO THUNDERSTORM SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND MAY GET
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE STORMS COULD GET IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TODAY, PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, NOT REBOUNDING UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL,
SMALLER PWATS AND A WEAKER GULF BREEZE, LIKELY LED TO LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER STORMS OVERALL. THAT
TREND MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE TODAY IF A SIMILAR AIR MASS IS
OBSERVED, AS EXPECTED, WITH THE 12Z RAOB. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL AGAIN GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE RIP CURRENT HIGH RISK STATEMENT CONTINUES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL, WITH POPS NO GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE RIDGE
COMPLEX ERODES AND MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH H5 THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH
FROM CUBA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. H5 WINDS FROM THE S AND SSE
WILL RESULT, TRANSPORTING DEEPER 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THUS, MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS MOVING CLOSER
TO 1.75". A NEW UPPER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...

SURFACE EASTERLIES REIGN THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS USUAL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND
SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, SO WILL
INCREASE MODEL OUTPUT BY AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  76 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  78 /  30  20  10  10
MIAMI            89  78  88  76 /  30  20  10  10
NAPLES           92  73  93  71 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....21/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
260000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
410 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ANY STORMS
TO DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WINDS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER