Afternoon seabreeze showers and thunderstorms developed from the Bay Area into southwest Florida. Although most stayed below severe levels, one was able to produce quarter size hail across Lee County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Afternoon seabreeze showers and thunderstorms developed from the Bay Area into southwest Florida. Although most stayed below severe levels, one was able to produce quarter size hail across Lee County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 8:24 AM EST, 4 hours 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... 12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THESE FEATURES WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME...THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN TO JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MORE ILL-DEFINED PATTERN. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE KTBW 02/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH SHOWS LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE WINDS ABOVE 500MB. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THE THINGS I ALWAYS TAKE NOTE OF ON MY WAY DOWN I-75 INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MORNING...IS THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STEAM PLUMES FROM THE POWER PLANT IN APOLLO BEACH. THESE PLUMES CAN GIVE YOU A GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND HENCE THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION THAT DAY (AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST ZONES). THIS MORNING...THESE STEAM PLUMES WERE ALMOST STRAIGHT VERTICAL...MEANING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT...OFTEN INDICITIVE OF WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS NEARBY. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY TO WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. NOW...THAT DOES NOT MEAN IF YOU SAW RAIN YESTERDAY THAT YOU WILL NECESSARY SEE IT AGAIN. SUCH IS THE REALITY WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF OUR CONVECTION...AND THE RANDOM NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE VARIABLES THAT DROVE THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN PLACE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO THE NE GULF WITH SCT STORMS MIGRATING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS ALONG WITH SLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION WILL LIKELY THEN RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EVOLVING DOWN INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME. LATER IN THE DAY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL END UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES (HIGHLANDS/POLK/HARDEE/DESOTO)...AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT MYERS AREA. LOOKING AT OUR SOUNDING PROFILE...THE SAME THREAT FOR SOME LARGER HAIL (SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY) IS STILL IN THE FORECAST. THE 500MB TEMP IS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM WEDNESDAY...BUT THE -10C MARK IS STILL LOW. LAPSE RATES THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LEVELS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C RANGE (OR HAIL GROWTH ZONE) IS CERTAINLY MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WE WOULD USUALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY. THEREFORE...ESPECIALLY SOME THE LATER DAY STORMS WILL HAVE A HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS THREAT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE WARM SEASON SIMULATED UPDRAFT VELOCITIES LATE TODAY APPROACHING 20M/S. STORMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET INTO THE LATER EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...AND END UP WITH A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE LANDMASS AFTER AROUND 03Z. LATE AT NIGHT...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM APPROACH THE LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z. MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA-BREEZE AND ANY CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE INLAND FASTEST OVER THE NATURE COAST...A BIT SLOWER ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND SLOWEST ALONG THE SUN COAST. DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHEST REMOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CLASH AND THE GREATEST LATE DAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...BUT HIGHER POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY AFTER 21Z TOMORROW IF IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST/WEST SEA-BREEZE COLLISION MAY REACH THAT FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNSET. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THESE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT THE TERMINALS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP. WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST CHANCE OF SCT STORMS TO BE AROUND KPIE/KTPA/KLAL AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY...WITH STORMS THEN MAINLY PUSHING INLAND FROM THE I-4 TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE... SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AWAY FROM TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS ACTIVITY MOSTLY PUSHES OVER THE LANDMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 78 90 78 / 40 10 40 20 FMY 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 20 GIF 94 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 40 SRQ 92 76 89 77 / 30 10 30 20 BKV 93 72 90 72 / 40 10 40 30 SPG 92 80 89 80 / 40 10 40 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN/GUSACK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 518 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- 873-876-030930- SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY- COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO- COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA- COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS- INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE- INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS- CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND- COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- 518 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. OGLESBY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1236 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
FLZ050-251-021715-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH FL-PINELLAS FL-
1236 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PINELLAS COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM EDT...
AT 1236 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER FEATHER SOUND...OR NEAR PINELLAS PARK...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...ST. PETERSBURG...SOUTH
HIGHPOINT...FEATHER SOUND...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...GANDY...SAFETY
HARBOR...OLDSMAR...KENNETH CITY...WEEDON ISLAND STATE PRESERVE...
SAINT PETE CLEARWATER AIRPORT...HIGHPOINT...LEALMAN AND SAWGRASS LAKE
PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 2804 8268 2801 8267 2804 8267 2805 8265
2801 8265 2798 8270 2796 8269 2796 8272
2794 8272 2791 8263 2789 8265 2787 8260
2787 8261 2783 8259 2781 8273 2799 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 255DEG 5KT 2793 8268
RAGThe Tampa radar (KTBW), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:44 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Local broadcast media relayed pictures via social media of some downed small trees and tree limbs in Wesley Chapel.
The National Weather Service in Miami relayed a report from a Collier County Deputy located near Bonita Beach. Hail was falling at the intersections of Bonita Beach Blvd and Tamiami Trail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 575676, 575673.