Several days of moist SW flow and passing heavy rainfall producing showers and thunderstorms caused saturated grounds, which are believed to have contributed to a sinkhole in Trenton.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Several days of moist SW flow and passing heavy rainfall producing showers and thunderstorms caused saturated grounds, which are believed to have contributed to a sinkhole in Trenton.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 2:51 PM EST, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 351 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .CURRENTLY... AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALOFT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS LOCALLY AS RIDGING REMAINS POSITIONED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST HAVE SPARKED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA THUS FAR TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SPARKING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH LESS CONVECTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE. .NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)... CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND SHEARS OUT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE LINE. ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST FL WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DISSIPATING BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN NORTH CENTRAL FL CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. SOME CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE FL BIG BEND COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S. THE SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRAVERSE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LOCALLY...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WE USED HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON THURS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BOOSTING HIGHS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105. SCATTERED LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST FL WILL LIKELY BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST COUNTIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH AND LIKELY PREVENTING ANY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. .SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER SE GA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BETWEEN 10-15 MPH GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NE FL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NE FL ON SATURDAY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT AND THERE IS ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SE GA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...POPS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT...AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND SFC LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING BEING A MAIN DRIVER. LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTH FL ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NE FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER SE GA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER FLORIDA WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SE GA REACHING LOW TO MID 90S WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. MONDAY WILL SEE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...PEAKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN US MID WEEK WITH LONG TERM MODELS VARYING IN TIMING AND STRENGTH AS SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY ACROSS SE GA AS TROUGH PRESSES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND WINDS STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS NE FL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH REINFORCING TROUGH FACILITATING CONVECTION EVEN AFTER DIURNAL HEATING IS CUT OFF AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVER SE GA AND COOLER TEMPS OFF THE GOMEX MODERATE PORTIONS OF NE FL. && .AVIATION... BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...SSI...AND GNV. VICINITY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT SGJ...WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 01Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 3000 FT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS TOWARDS 06Z...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARDS 15Z THURS. && .MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS TONIGHT AS WINDS SURGE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY LATE THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE EVENING WIND SURGE ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY...STALLING OVER OUR WATERS ON SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATING. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...REMAINING JUST UNDER CAUTION SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER ACTIVITY. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 93 75 90 / 30 50 20 60 SSI 76 92 77 87 / 30 30 20 60 JAX 74 93 76 89 / 30 50 10 60 SGJ 75 91 76 89 / 30 40 10 50 GNV 72 92 74 88 / 10 40 10 60 OCF 72 92 74 88 / 10 40 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && NELSON/GUILLET/COMBS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 400 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-062000- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION- BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION- COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING- WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN- ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 400 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE LINE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY FRIDAY...STALLING NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER ON SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THEIR LOCATIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. NELSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
356 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
FLZ023-025-031-052045-
BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-INLAND DUVAL FL-
356 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN BAKER AND WEST CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...
AT 356 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MAXVILLE...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAIFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACCLENNY...MAXVILLE AND BALDWIN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 3019 8197 3019 8205 3007 8205 3011 8215
3012 8214 3014 8214 3014 8222 3036 8210
3036 8205 3027 8205 3034 8198 3030 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 207DEG 17KT 3018 8209
PETERSONSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
401 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
FLZ025-052045-
INLAND DUVAL FL-
401 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...
AT 401 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
OAKLEAF PLANTATION...OR 8 MILES WEST OF ORANGE PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...CECIL FIELD...NAS JAX...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK TERRACE
AND JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 3019 8172 3019 8191 3020 8192 3036 8183
3022 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 223DEG 13KT 3019 8185
PETERSONSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
454 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
FLZ024-025-GAZ164-052145-
INLAND NASSAU FL-INLAND DUVAL FL-CHARLTON GA-
454 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DUVAL...NASSAU AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
AT 454 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BRYCEVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALLAHAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLIARD...CALLAHAN...ST. GEORGE...BRYCEVILLE...KINGS FERRY...RATLIFF
AND NASSAU VILLAGE-RATLIFF.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 3035 8195 3063 8212 3081 8189 3079 8187
3079 8182 3062 8165 3058 8165 3055 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 232DEG 24KT 3044 8189
PETERSONThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A sinkhole was reported at 1350 SW State Road 26 in Trenton. Saturated grounds due to recent heavy rainfall in the area were observed. The sinkhole was a threat to a utility transmission box and the roadway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 599023.