Flooding and Hail in Kansas, August 5, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A
BIT..WITH AN ISOLATED STORM STILL JUST NW OF KSLN.  SO QUESTION IS
HOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IN
THE NW FLOW OVER NRN NEB AT THIS TIME.  MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WED MORNING.  JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING FOR AREAS NE OF THE KICT METRO AREA
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK KICT/KHUT METRO AREAS MAY BE ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS
RENEWED PRECIP/STORM CHANCE. SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR AREAS SW
OF THIS LINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS NE OF KICT...AS STORMS WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST...WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAY FOCUSED OVER E-NE KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING.  EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU EARLY WED
MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  60  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  60  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  70  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  50  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  60  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1011 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-060315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1011 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG A LINE FROM
SALINA TO CHANUTE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL LOW-LAND
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT THE
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER RAIN-COOLED AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF KANSAS. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FINALLY...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
138 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

KSZ033-050715-
LINCOLN KS-
138 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 135 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICTOR...OR 10
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS
IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BARNARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3904 9793 3919 9834 3922 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 299DEG 35KT 3933 9820

DARMOFAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

KSZ033-050800-
LINCOLN KS-
218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT

* AT 215 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
  NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLN...BEVERLY...BARNARD AND ASH GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3897 9793 3907 9845 3922 9840
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 280DEG 34KT 3918 9832

DARMOFAL