Drought in California, September 1 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD