High Surf in California, December 23, 2015

Name: High Surf in California, December 23, 2015
Start: 2015-12-23T14:00
End: 2015-12-23T14:00
Location: California

December 23, 2015 · NWS MTR · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Large ocean swell were breaking along the Northern California Coast on December 23, 2015. In addition, moderately strong northwest winds were observed over the coastal waters.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MTR wrote it up.

Large ocean swell were breaking along the Northern California Coast on December 23, 2015. In addition, moderately strong northwest winds were observed over the coastal waters. These conditions contributed to the death of a kayaker at the mouth of the Russian River.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 23, 10:02 AM PST, 3 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 10:02 AM PST, 3 hours 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1002 AM PST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE
NEXT...AND COLDER...STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. IT WILL BRING LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE HILLS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT ASIDE FROM A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDINESS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT US IS PRESENTLY JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...WITH IT NOW BEING CENTERED
NEAR 50N 140W AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD.

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROJECTING IT TO DIVE
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWER CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY AND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
MOVING THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A BIT OF
BREAK...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LOOK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA IN THE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
DISTRICTWIDE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER DYNAMICALLY THAN OUR LAST STORM...ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE CONTENT AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION ARE BOTH EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1/3 TO
2/3 OF AN INCH RANGE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1.5 TO 2 INCHES WETTEST SPOTS IN THE COASTAL HILLS.

THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MUCH COLDER...WITH MODELS
PROJECTING 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE -2C TO -3C RANGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SNOW LEVELS IN THE HILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 2500 FT AND PERHAPS LOCALLY EVEN A BIT
LOWER THAN THAT. TEMPERATURES AT MIDTROPOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL ALSO
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AND RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE...AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS IN THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME
FRAME. LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT BRINGS 925 MB WIND SPEEDS UP TO THE
35 TO 38 KT RANGE IN THAT TIME FRAME...SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF
SURFACE WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS UP IN THE HIGHER
HILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL SPOTS. RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH WINDS OF 280 TO 300 OF 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT THROUGH 02Z. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. RAIN RETURNS AROUND 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS
EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 270 TO
290 WINDS WITH HIGHER SPEEDS AT KMRY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:53 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS THEN WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WATERS ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE BUT WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 2 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.

High Surf, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore

When: December 23, 2:00 PM PST
Where: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore forecast zone
Reported by: Coast Guard
Coordinates: 38.290, -122.835 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A kayaker drowned after he encountered high surf at the mouth of the Russian River near Goat Rock State Beach on the Sonoma County Coast. The kayaker launched with one other individual into the Russian River near Jenner. Once he encountered the large surf, his kayak overturned.

What these are

High Surf: Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in California in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in California, December 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 608004.