A slow moving cold front pushed into the Mid-South on April 13, 2015. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms with very heavy rain developed across Northeast Arkansas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A slow moving cold front pushed into the Mid-South on April 13, 2015. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms with very heavy rain developed across Northeast Arkansas. Heavy rain caused flash flooding in the Jonesboro area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 13, 9:36 AM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1036 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NW AR WHILE MOIST AIR FLOWS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AREAL COVERAGE AT THE MOMENT IS FAIRLY SPARSE WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AR. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WILL LIFT NORTH WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TRACK ENE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MEAGER ATTM BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST. SJM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/ CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE H5 ANALYSIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TODAY WHILE A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND SPARK NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THIS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE IT SHOULD BE NEAR TUPELO BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHERE IT WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE MID AND LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE. MANY AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT NOW AGREE THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT SATURDAY COULD BE THE BEST BET FOR DRY CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RIDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. ZDM && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS LIGHT RAINFALL AND DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED/WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS...SWITCHING TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING TO 15KTS AFTER 00Z. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AFTER 06Z FOR JBR...MEM AND MKL BUT WILL LINGER AT TUP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 442 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-141145- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 442 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WEEK COULD LEAD TO A SATURATED GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK TO BECOME RUNOFF AND CREATE A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ZDM
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:02 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Intense rainfall in a short period of time resulting in 6 to 12 inches of water over South Caraway Road in the southeast part of Jonesboro. It was estimated that one half inch of rain fell in 15 minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, April 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 569300.