A thunderstorm produced heavy rain and flash flooding south of Chinle.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced heavy rain and flash flooding south of Chinle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 2, 2:45 PM MST, 2 hours 56 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 245 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUSTAIN LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. WHILE THERE IS MUCH VARIANCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY DECREASING THE STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL BE SENSED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OR DEEP OUTFLOW FROM STORM COMPLEXES OVER THE VALLEY COULD QUICKLY BRING GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM PAYSON-WINSLOW-KAYENTA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...BAK AVIATION...RR FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 657 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-030500- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 657 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WELL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. KD
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1144 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ012-021915- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- 1144 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM MST... AT 1142 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TWO GUNS...OR 25 MILES EAST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS WILL AFFECT I-40 BETWEEN TWIN ARROWS AND TWO GUNS. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TWO GUNS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3500 11121 3510 11128 3522 11116 3509 11101 TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 237DEG 11KT 3509 11119 MOTTICE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 114 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ012-015-022030- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 114 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST... AT 113 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN SUNSET CRATER VOLCANO NATIONAL MONUMENT AND WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SUNSET CRATER VOLCANO NATIONAL MONUMENT AND WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3532 11147 3541 11156 3556 11142 3541 11125 TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 230DEG 10KT 3541 11145 MOTTICE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 231 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ040-022200- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 231 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO AND WEST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MST... AT 228 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KYKOTSMOVI VILLAGE OR 18 MILES NORTH OF TOLANI LAKE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING ALONG INDIAN ROUTE 2. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HOPI RESERVATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3556 11072 3563 11089 3588 11076 3576 11050 TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 208DEG 19KT 3568 11074 MOTTICE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 338 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ014-022315- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- 338 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM MST... AT 337 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LYMAN LAKE STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS INCLUDES US-60 AND US-180 FROM LYMAN LATE STATE PARK TO THE SPRINGERVILLE AREA. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPRINGERVILLE...EAGAR...LYMAN LAKE STATE PARK...LYMAN LAKE AND BECKER LAKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3409 10934 3427 10951 3448 10930 3427 10906 TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 233DEG 8KT 3424 10938 MOTTICE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 410 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ009-010-039-022345- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-BLACK MESA AREA- 410 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NAVAJO AND WEST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MST... AT 408 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF STEAMBBOAT CANYON TO NEAR SALINA...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHINLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COTTONWOOD AND SALINA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3579 10971 3579 11000 3616 11000 3614 10960 TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 186DEG 20KT 3598 10986 MOTTICE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 432 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 AZZ006-007-012-030000- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-COCONINO PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- 432 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM MST... AT 431 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF DESERT VIEW AT GRAND CANYONG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY...BUT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THIS AREA. LAT...LON 3581 11175 3587 11188 3607 11176 3594 11155 TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 221DEG 12KT 3587 11178 JJ
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 222 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:41 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Chinle Police Department reported that Indian Route 27 was impassable due to flash flooding south of Chinle.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 601501.