Thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooding around Payson.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooding around Payson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 3:46 PM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 346 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...FOR THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. FROM MONDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. && .DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRST BEGAN IN AND AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HAS SINCE MIGRATED EASTWARD TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORM COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY BEEN ISOLATED, BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE PRODUCED VERY HIGH RAIN RATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INCREASING DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WHILE WE HAVE HAD SOME STRONG STORMS TODAY, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS SOMEWHAT MODERATED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IF THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE DOES NOT LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY, THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LIKELY BE INACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. FOR THE WEEKEND...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE WESTERN COCONINO, YAVAPAI, NORTHERN GILA AND FAR SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTIES. THE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL DETERMINE THE NATURE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW WILL BE CLOUD COVER. ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS OVERRUN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY TOMORROW MORNING, WIDESPREAD, CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. FROM MONDAY ONWARD...A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT, SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH...INCLUDING YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. XPCT MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD GOING FROM SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY TO MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AZZ008-015-016- 018-037-038. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AZZ004>007. && PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...TC FIRE WEATHER...TC FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 354 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-180145- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 354 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA, YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THIS REGION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 11 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA AND FAR SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTIES. FROM MONDAY ONWARD...A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TYPICALLY FAVORED REGIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 130 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015 AZZ037-038-172045- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- 130 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY... AT 127 PM MST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PAGE SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEDONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MOTORIST ARE CAUTIONED FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND HAIL ON ROAD SURFACE COULD LEAD TO LOSS OF VEHICLE CONTROL...PLEASE SLOW DOWN. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PAGE SPRINGS. THIS INCLUDES STATE ROUTE 89A BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 359 AND 366. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LAT...LON 3472 11192 3478 11201 3488 11193 3475 11181 TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 227DEG 10KT 3479 11194 TC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Some flooding was observed in Payson due to 2 to 3 inches of rain from thunderstorms. The east Verde River rose about 8 inches or over 100 CFS (from 10 CFS to 110 CFS).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597465.