Heavy rain form thunderstorms caused flash flooding southeast of Page.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain form thunderstorms caused flash flooding southeast of Page.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 10:00 AM MST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DECREASING STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. && .UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT ONGOING SHOWERS IN APACHE COUNTY, OTHERWISE TODAY'S FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS OVER CENTRAL AZ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION IN NE ARIZONA. MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ALSO DELAY AND POSSIBLY PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY IN SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY, WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...SATELLITE PW AND SFC OBS INDICATE THE MONSOON PLUME WAS BASICALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM FREDONIA TO WILLIAMS THROUGH BLACK CANYON CITY. THERE IS A WEAKENING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO APACHE COUNTY NOW. PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SREF MODEL WHICH YIELDS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE WHITE MTNS. ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE VERDE RIVER DRAINAGE AND SWRN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORM MOTION TODAY GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LESS DAYTIME STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES AND NO OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FRIDAY ONWARD...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE SURGE DUE IN PART TO HURRICANE DOLORES WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFF THE WESTERN BAJA COAST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS OVERHEAD TODAY...AND THE THE MOISTURE AXIS TO BE ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. MODEL PRECIP FORECASTS ARE ALSO HIGHER FOR THE WEEKEND VS TODAY. THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. PROBABLY NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE NARROW CANYONS OF NORTHERN AZ. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...BKN-OVC SKIES WITH SCT -SHRA WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF APACHE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF NAVAJO COUNTY THROUGH 19Z-21Z. EXPECT CLOUD BASES FROM 8-10KFT AGL IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...SKC-SCT CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KGCN-KPRC BY 19Z LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. MVFR AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS WITH STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION MAY BE HAMPERED OVER APACHE COUNTY DUE TO THE MORNING RAINFALL. IMPROVEMENT ALL AREAS 01Z-03Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA...LEADING TO DECREASING STORM COVERAGE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AFTERNOON VENTILATION. ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH LEADING TO A BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MOIST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...JJ/DL AVIATION...PETERSON FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 320 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-150400- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 320 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF GILA AND SOUTHWEST YAVAPAI COUNTY. HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WEST OF FLAGSTAFF...WITH SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 154 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:30 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A pilot reported seeing flash flooding form the air just upstream from Upper Antelope Canyon. The pilot also reported seeing lots of water running in side canyons.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596695.