Name: Drought in Arizona, January 1 to 31, 2015
Start: 2015-01-01T00:00
End: 2015-01-31T23:59
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Extreme drought (D3) conditions continued across far northeast Pinal and a portion of west central Graham Counties during January. Extreme southeast Pinal and southwest Graham Counties were reduced to the severe drought (D2) category early in the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 9:45 PM MST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 9:45 PM MST, 2 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 PM MST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN SOME
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET CAN EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS MAINLY
30-35 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF PIMA/SRN PINAL/SANTA CRUZ/FAR WRN
COCHISE COUNTY VALID 0440Z. THESE PRECIP ECHOES WERE MOVING NEWD
AROUND 10-15 KTS. BASED ON VARIOUS OBSERVATIONS...THE BEST ESTIMATE
FOR SNOW LEVELS IN THE FOOTHILLS ADJACENT TUCSON IS 3000-3500 FEET...
AND 4000-4500 FEET ACROSS ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA. MOUNT LEMMON FIRE DEPARTMENT (ELEV ABOUT 7800 FT) REPORTED A
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7.0 INCHES VALID 940 PM MST.

542 DM LOW CENTERED OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL AZ WILL MOVE NEWD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AZ AROUND DAYBREAK THUR. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND THE 01/01Z RUC HRRR DEPICTS THE BULK
OF PRECIP TO END FROM TUCSON WWD AROUND 01/08Z OR SO. HAVE NOTED
THAT THE HRRR DEPICTS PRECIP TO END ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER...OR BY AROUND DAYBREAK THUR.

FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE...SNOW LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO
REFLECT THE ONGOING CONDITIONS AS NOTED ABOVE. AREAS OF FOG WERE
ADDED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THUR MORNING FOR ERN PIMA
COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND THE UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY.
BASED ON RECEIPT OF THE 01/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...OPTED TO
CHANGE THE FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND ADJOINING
LOCALES WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF TUCSON TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING LATE
THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

THE OTHER WINTER STORM WARNINGS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AND
FREEZE WATCH CONTINUE UNCHANGED. PRECIP THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO ERN SECTIONS...AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRI.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF KTUS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE WEST OF KTUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS FURTHER EASTWARD TO INCLUDE KTUS THURSDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE SLY
TO WLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. THEREAFTER... SURFACE WIND
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY AS A
WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SUB-FREEZING LOW
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...WHEN LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AND INTO
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. AFTER INSPECTION OF
12Z MOS LOW TEMP NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...DECIDED
TO GO WITH A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN JUST FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY MORNING SINCE THE LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY
MORNING COMPARED TO FRIDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TEMPS AT OR BELOW
27 DEGS F WILL BE SMALLER.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
AND FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ510-511-514.

    WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ506-509
      ABOVE 4000 FEET.

    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ512-513.

    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
      AZZ510-511-514.

    HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ502-
      504>506.

    FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
      FOR AZZ504-506.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLLERE

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When: January 1, 12:00 AM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across parts of far northeast Pinal and west central Graham Counties, including the Santa Teresa Mountains, through January. Soil moistures rose slightly to the 75th percentile and levels at San Carlos Reservoir climbed to about 9 percent of capacity. Extreme southeast Pinal and southwest Graham Counties, including the Galiuro Mountains, were reduced to the severe drought (D2) category early in the month. Above normal precipitation occurred for the second consecutive month in those areas for which the drought category was reduced.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When: January 1, 12:00 AM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across parts of far northeast Pinal and west central Graham Counties, including the Santa Teresa Mountains, through January. Soil moistures rose slightly to the 75th percentile and levels at San Carlos Reservoir climbed to about 9 percent of capacity. Extreme southeast Pinal and southwest Graham Counties, including the Galiuro Mountains, were reduced to the severe drought (D2) category early in the month. Above normal precipitation occurred for the second consecutive month in those areas for which the drought category was reduced.

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When: January 1, 12:00 AM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across parts of far northeast Pinal and west central Graham Counties, including the Santa Teresa Mountains, through January. Soil moistures rose slightly to the 75th percentile and levels at San Carlos Reservoir climbed to about 9 percent of capacity. Extreme southeast Pinal and southwest Graham Counties, including the Galiuro Mountains, were reduced to the severe drought (D2) category early in the month. Above normal precipitation occurred for the second consecutive month in those areas for which the drought category was reduced.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, January 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 551372, 551373, 551374.