High Wind in Arizona, February 11 to 12, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST WED FEB 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND WARMER TO
END THE WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...WEST TEXAS AND CLOSER TO HOME OVER SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND INTO MOSTLY EASTERN PARTS OF COCHISE COUNTY.

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND MOVED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND EASTERN PARTS OF
COCHISE COUNTY. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY BECAME
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE
SHOWERS AND 'STORMS' HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO.

WITH THE LOW STILL JUST TO MY EAST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY FOR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF
COCHISE COUNTY. WILL ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS SET UP A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALREADY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT DOUGLAS AT 03Z (8 PM
MST). THESE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED EVEN MORE WITH THE 1-MINUTE WIND
DATA FROM THE DOUGLAS ASOS AT 0350Z SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35
MPH AND A GUSTS TO 46 MPH. THAT SAID...I WILL START THE WIND
ADVISORY EARLIER...MEANING NOW. THIS IS PROBABLY A BIT EARLY FOR THE
WESTERN MOST MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE CATALINA'S AND SANTA
RITA'S...BUT WINDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BECOME STRONGER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD MORE REAL
ESTATE TO THE ADVISORY...WHICH MEANS THE VALLEY FLOORS OF EASTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE THE STORY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO. A NORTHERLY
AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL SET UP WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES THROUGH 12Z OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GENERATE STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS
AND LESS WIND WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE IMPULSE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG RIDGE NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS DRYISH INLAND TRAJECTORY IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO YIELD MUCH PRECIP AS THE IMPULSE WANDERS INTO THE WEAK
FLOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH WHATEVER SHOWERS WE MANAGE STAYING
EAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE INCREASING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WIND EVENTS ARE PROBLEMATIC IN THAT THEY
TEND TO HAVE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS THAN THOSE
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT. WE WILL GO FOR AN ADVISORY IN MOST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND AND THE HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATES
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE RESULTING LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL THEN
HELP GUIDE THE IMPULSE WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
PERHAPS JUST WEST OF THE BAJA COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FOR US
THAT MEANS MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ONCE IT IS IN A COMPLETE CUT-OFF POSITION LIKE THAT...EVERYTHING
DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS AT HIGHER LATITUDES. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE KICKER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO CAUSE TIMING
AND TRAJECTORY WITH POOR CONTINUITY. BEST BET LOOKS LIKE A SCENARIO
WHERE THE SHARPENING RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE A BIT AND ALLOW JUST
ENOUGH ROOM FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHEARING THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THIS WOULD EMPHASIZE THE
BORDER AREA AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
PRECIP, WITH VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THE HIGHER LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
THEN PROBABLY CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA AND GIVE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
HANNAGAN MEADOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ508-511>514.

&&

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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MEYER/CANTIN