Blizzard in Alaska, December 24 to 25, 2015

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE ARE SOME
ISSUES AS THEY MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN
SOLUTIONS. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH
REALITY SO THAT SHOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT EASIER TODAY. WILL
LEAN ON CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GFS RUN.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...499 DAM LOW OVER BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIES
FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE
FROM OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO CHALKYITSIK TO HEALY LATE THIS
MORNING...AND MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO KING SALMON TO EMMONAK AND
OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE
OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO CAPE
LISBURNE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA THIS MORNING AT 500
DAM...MOVING TO 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 494 DAM BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...00Z
UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 16.7 CELSIUS
BELOW SO THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM IS TO THE NORTH BUT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL
MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY TO LIE FROM DAWSON YT TO POINT HOPE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EXITING THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A 1027 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
CANADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW YT LATE
THIS EVENING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THE PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST WITH AND OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING
NORTH TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER
THIS MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...AS LOW OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH SOME
CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF NUIQSUT. THE 24/0718Z SPORT
MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IS NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS AND
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...IT SHOULD STAY CLEARED OUT
FOR A WHILE...AND THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF ROUGE STRATUS THAT MOVE OVER
AREAS...BUT NOT SEEING IT RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN
THE BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE AND PUSHES
THE COLDEST AIR NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC DIMINISHING
LATER TODAY...BUT WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLDER AIR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED
OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WORKING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY NOON TODAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING WILL OCCUR PRETTY RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA AS AREAS TO THE WEST ARE
ALREADY CLEAR OR CLEARING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 15
DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH GAP WINDS AND TANANA JET
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

&&

SDB DEC 15