A storm moved from north of Japan and rapidly intensified over the Aleutians, reaching 924 mb near the central Aleutians. This storm brought significant winds to the central Aleutians and 53 foot seas to the Bering Sea.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A storm moved from north of Japan and rapidly intensified over the Aleutians, reaching 924 mb near the central Aleutians. This storm brought significant winds to the central Aleutians and 53 foot seas to the Bering Sea. A triple point low forming along the front of this system moved across the mainland and brought blizzard conditions to the west coast and channeled areas in SouthCentral Alaska.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 12, 5:46 AM AKST, 6 hours 2 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
546 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER COOK INLET...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA. A LOW AMPLITUDE AND RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
UNDERCUTTING THAT RIDGE...AND IS MOVING INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA. A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON RADAR.
OUT WEST...A POWERFUL CYCLONE IS BEGINNING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA NEAR 47N. THIS POWERFUL CYCLONE IS FORMING OFF
THE KUROSHIO CURRENT...AND HAS AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC FEED OF AIR
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH THE POLAR JET DRIVING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH LATENT
ENERGY RELEASE FROM THE MOISTURE OFF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT THAT IT
IS FORMING ITS OWN COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP A BENT-BACK FRONTAL
STRUCTURE...A CLASSIC SIGNATURE FOR VERY INTENSE CYCLONES...WITH
STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN. IN TERMS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE...WITH AN
EXPECTED DROP INTO THE 920 HPA RANGE...THIS STORM WILL PUT ITSELF
INTO THE TOP ECHELON OF INTENSE CYCLONES TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA.
CENTRAL PRESSURES THIS LOW ARE COMMON FOR CATEGORY 3 AND HIGHER
HURRICANES...TO GIVE AN IDEA HOW INTENSE THIS BAROCLINIC AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONE IS.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HEADING LATE INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FORCE LOW FORMING OVER THE BERING
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE NAM BEING THE LONE EXCEPTION. THEY ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE LARGEST DISCREPANCY BEING
PRECIPITATION DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
BERING...AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW OVER THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAVORED ACROSS
THE BERING AND SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME NAM WAS USED TO CAPTURE LOCAL
WIND DETAILS...WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...AND MODERATE WITH DETAILS
SUCH AS PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE LOW DECAYS OVER COOK INLET TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE KENAI AND OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS...WHILE THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL
INTERCEPT SHOWERS AS THEY ENTER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING SUN...AND SNOW TO THE
KENAI LATER ON SUN...AND THEN TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT
FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUN NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GULF LOW MOVES EAST.
RIDGING BRIEFLY TRANSITS THE MAINLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGES INTO MONDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INLAND ON SUNDAY
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THEN THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE POWERFUL NORTH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING LATER TODAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CHAIN THIS MORNING TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE.
WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN SLIGHTLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAINTAINS
STRENGTH.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)... THE
VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR BEING
PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE FROM THE EASTERN ASIA REGION GETS
WOUND UP IN THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE BERING THE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING OR BELOW
WITH A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK. BY
TUESDAY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKEN TO A GALE FORCE LOW
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE BERING SEA. BY THURSDAY MORNING
A GALE FORCE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW 40S BEFORE SPILLING
OVER INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ONE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BIG SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY COASTAL FLOOD TYPE HAZARDS. EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WATER RISES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LOW TRACK WAS RESOLVED WELL. NOW
THAT THE TRACK IS A BIT MORE OF SOUTH TO NORTH...RATHER THAN DUE
EAST...WINDS AND SWELL WILL BE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY.
THUS...GUIDANCE ON SURGE HEIGHTS HAS COME DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL ITERATIONS. THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE IS
SOME NEW ICE GROWTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE IT IS QUITE YOUNG
AND NOT VERY THICK AT THIS TIME...IT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE WATER LEVELS FROM RISING AS MUCH. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS TREND WITH THIS POTENTIAL TODAY.
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE EXITING THE AOR BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COASTLINES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND. SO THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX...WHILE IT SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE FAIRLY WELL AND HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER TRIPLE-POINT SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK. THE GULF
WILL HAVE A STRONG 120 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK BEFORE
EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM THERE WILL BE
A STRONG 110 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL TRACK A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTO THE LOWER GULF BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW TO THE FAR
EASTERN GULF AND THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THE LOW IN THE LOWER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WE USED THE WPC MODEL TO KEEP A MORE CONSISTENT
TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST
OF KODIAK AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191.
BLIZZARD WATCH 155
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 173-178 412 413
STORM WARNING 165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185 411 414
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 180 181 185
GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 160
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MSO/PD4 high wind, 2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds began gusting over 100 mph at 3:34 p.m. local time. The St. George sensor failed after a 124 mph gust at 5:34 p.m. During this time, the breakwater at St. George harbor was significantly damaged by high surf and strong winds.
Winds above 73 mph began at 12:30 pm on 12/12 and lasted until 6:30 pm on 12/13. The event peaked between 8:00 pm 12/12 and 3:15 am on 12/13, when winds consistently gusted above 100 mph. The max wind speed was reached on 12/12 at 10:30 pm. Power disruption to the airport damaged a localizer , preventing commercial flights to the airport. Damage to the fish processing plant security door allowed wind and water into the fish processing equipment. 2 tugs tied to the dock broke free and were beached on the breakwater. An estimate of 10 residential homes experienced minor damage. Other damage to city facilities was also classified as minor . Some debris was on the roadways from wind blown roof and siding.
Winds reach a peak on the evening of 12/12. No confirmed damage.
High winds blew in Atka from 7:56 p.m. on 12/12 through just after midnight on 12/13. The peak of the event was a 74 mph wind gust. No damage was reported.
Blizzard conditions peaked along the west coast and lasted for 18 hours. Worst conditions were at Kipnuk, with gusts to 37 knots and 1/4 mile visibility. No impacts were reported.
Portage ASOS reported 1/4 mile visibility with snow and fog for 6 hours. Peak winds during this time were 44 knots. No damage reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 607417, 607380, 607383, 607381, 607415, 607416.