An upper level disturbance embedded in the southwest upper level flow resulted in the development of a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms that impacted coastal Alabama during the late evening of May 15th into the early morning of May 16th. The system produced locally heavy rain and an isolated instance of flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MOB wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance embedded in the southwest upper level flow resulted in the development of a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms that impacted coastal Alabama during the late evening of May 15th into the early morning of May 16th. The system produced locally heavy rain and an isolated instance of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 8:37 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR GENERALLY NEAR THE MOBILE RIVER
DELTA REGION WHERE HIGH POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR CONCENTRATED AREA OF
PERSISTENT STORMS AND ALSO OVER PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE. HAVE LEFT IN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT FOR EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/HRRR AND RAP COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE. BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE...WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 00-04Z MAINLY FOR
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VCSH/VCTS WITH A VFR CEILING
PREVAILS OVERNIGHT THOUGH CEILINGS LOWER TO NEAR 2.5KFT NEAR 12Z.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN
16 AND 20Z AND WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...NEAR 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 12 KNOTS BY
15Z SATURDAY. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]....LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND HEATING TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEARSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW...HOWEVER A STORM MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.8 INCHES
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
MUGGY...UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S. /13
SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT SETS UP FROM FLORIDA...NORTHWARD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MOVING INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CARRYING OVER INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
LOWS (UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S COAST). /10
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...THEN BREAKS DOWN BY
TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO HANG UP AND RESIDE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A SHADE LOWER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH A
COASTAL SEABREEZE EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEN FRONT EASING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK...ENOUGH LIFT
OPERATES ON THIS MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE OUTLOOK. SOME OF THE DAYTIME STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
STRONG...PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL.
DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. LOWER HALF OF THE 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN UPPER
60S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S COAST. /10
AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
LOCALIZED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. /13
MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 71 82 71 87 71 / 70 60 30 20 10
PENSACOLA 73 83 73 85 73 / 30 50 20 20 10
DESTIN 73 82 74 83 75 / 30 40 20 20 10
EVERGREEN 68 84 68 89 68 / 20 60 30 20 20
WAYNESBORO 68 83 69 87 69 / 20 60 30 30 20
CAMDEN 68 84 68 88 69 / 20 60 30 30 20
CRESTVIEW 69 86 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
LOWER MOBILE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-161045- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN SOME URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-161045- NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 16 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:56 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain resulted in flooding near the intersection of Government St and McDonald Ave.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 581730.