Damaging Winds in Alabama, July 13 to 15, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1034 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast is on track today with only minor updates to the PoP with
the latest CAM guidance. With northwest flow, today will be a
type 8 sea breeze day. Similar to yesterday, storms will have a
later start and with the greatest chance near the coast. The 12Z
TAE sounding showed around 2000 J/KG of CAPE so storms that form
could quickly produce gusty winds. It will be hot again this
afternoon with highs in the upper 90s. We will not quite reach
heat advisory criteria, but caution should be take outdoors.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]... VFR conditions will prevail with the only
exception in thunderstorms. ECP will have the best chance, but
thunderstorms are also possible at VLD and TLH.

&&

.Prev Discussion [345 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The synoptic pattern east of the Rockies will not change
appreciably over the first half of the work week, with a stout
mid-upper level high remaining centered over the Arklatex. This
will set up northwesterly flow aloft from the Great Lakes to the
Southeast, and raises the possibility of some effects from
upstream convection even this far south. Essentially all the
models show some +PV anomalies propagating southeast along the
periphery of the ridge, with some passing through or very near our
forecast area. However, the timing is somewhat inconsistent, and
models tend to struggle handling convection in persistent
northwest flow regimes over the eastern US. However, these flow
patterns do usually yield at least one or two MCVs, outflow
boundaries, or shortwaves that reach our area and enhance
convective intensity, organization, and coverage. Due to timing
uncertainties, we maintained higher PoPs at night over land areas
than would be climatologically likely this time of year. It's
worth noting that there is fairly good agreement amongst the
models in showing a stronger shortwave reaching the Carolinas and
eastern Georgia by late Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlined a slight risk of severe storms for later Wednesday across
parts of our area, so that may be a period when our area could see
some more organized thunderstorms.

While high temperatures may return closer to seasonal normals in
the low-mid 90s, models indicate higher afternoon dewpoints -
possibly remaining in the mid 70s in some areas. This should
continue to produce widespread heat indices around 105 degrees,
with a few areas possibly approaching Heat Advisory criteria. This
will need to be monitored, although the aforementioned uncertainty
surrounding convective timing makes it difficult to identify any
specific area or day that would be more likely to see those sort
of conditions.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge will remain centered over the Arklatex
region through the extended period, which should continue to place
the forecast area in N-NW flow. This traditionally favors higher
rain chances in our Florida zones, although any areas of organized
convection that initiate north of our area could also push south
and affect more of the forecast area. The forecast continues to
indicate a chance of showers and storms each day, with highs
remaining slightly above normal - in the mid 90s. Models indicate
a continuation of elevated dewpoints during the daytime hours, so
heat indices should continue to regularly be above 100 degrees.

.Marine...

West winds will begin to increase later on Tuesday, with SCEC
level winds possible from Tuesday Night to Thursday Night. 15-20
knot winds are above the climatological normal for this time of
year, especially lingering for such a long period of time. In
addition, expected large atmospheric instability levels over the
coastal waters will contribute to a persistent threat of severe
winds from thunderstorms over the waters. Mariners should be
prepared for stronger winds and choppier seas than are normally
expected in July, as well as the possibility of some significant
storms over the waters this week.

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.Hydrology...

Area rivers remain below bankfull levels. Scattered showers and
storms are expected this week, but heavy rainfall should be
relatively localized. Flooding is not expected on any of the
larger area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  76  94  75  94 /  30  40  60  30  50
Panama City   93  81  90  80  90 /  30  20  40  30  40
Dothan        97  76  97  77  95 /  20  30  40  30  40
Albany        98  75  97  75  94 /  20  30  40  30  40
Valdosta     100  74  94  74  95 /  30  40  60  30  50
Cross City    95  76  90  76  92 /  50  30  50  30  50
Apalachicola  92  80  90  80  91 /  30  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS