Strong Wind in Alabama, February 2, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Rain will be off and on tonight as two or three different rain
batches move through. A cold front will move through during the
morning hours, ending the rain. The WAA pattern in advance of the
surface cold front should hold temperatures relatively steady in the
low 60s overnight before beginning to fall in the few hours before
sunrise as the cold front arrives.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Expect rain off and on all night until a cold front sweeps
through the area on Monday morning. Expect IFR CIGs overnight.
CIGs will improve in the morning, then clear out completely once
the cold front passes. Winds will be gusty and northwesterly
tomorrow.

&&

.Prev Discussion [252 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Cold front will be situated across the eastern half of the
forecast area by sunrise Monday morning, with showers ongoing
along and ahead of the boundary. The rain will end during the
morning, with skies clearing from west to east during the day.
Temperatures will vary widely across the area to start the day,
with mid 40s in the northwest and mid 60s in the southeast.
Temperatures will generally fall or remain steady through most of
the day as strong cold air advection kicks in behind the front.
Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the
northwest to the mid 50s in the southeast.

Seasonably cool conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday,
with lows near freezing and highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Temperatures will moderate Tuesday night ahead of the next system.
At this time, it appears the rain will hold off until daylight on
Wednesday.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
An upper low ejecting from the desert southwest will induce
cyclogenesis over the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. While
the upper low will deamplify as it is absorbed by a developing
large scale trough, the surface low will continue to move east
along the northern Gulf Coast through the day on Wednesday into
Thursday. Lift ahead of the upper trough as well as isentropic
lift in the lower levels will produce a broad area of rain across
the area from early Wednesday to early Thursday.

A cooler and drier airmass will move into the region late on
Thursday as the storm system exits. This will keep the weather
dry and slightly cooler than normal from Friday through the
weekend.

.Marine...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Monday ahead
of (and behind) the approaching cold front. Winds will shift from
southwest to northwest as the front passes. Following a brief lull
early on Tuesday, easterly winds will return to exercise caution
levels and continue into Thursday. Strong offshore flow will be
possible again by Friday in the wake of another front.

.Fire Weather...
A wetting rain is expected today into tonight for the entire
region. Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

.Hydrology...
The first system for this afternoon through Monday morning is
expected to produce mainly less than 1" of rain across the area,
although a couple of isolated amounts heavier than 1" are possible
across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

The second system during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame is
expected to produce a bit more rainfall with a general 1-2"
possible. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  64  32  58  40 /  90  50   0   0  10
Panama City   54  62  34  55  44 /  80  30   0   0  10
Dothan        48  50  30  55  39 /  90  20   0   0  10
Albany        52  58  29  55  36 /  90  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      58  63  32  58  41 /  90  60   0   0  10
Cross City    60  67  30  62  43 /  70  60   0   0  10
Apalachicola  59  65  36  56  46 /  70  40   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through Monday evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...DVD