Low pressure positioned over the Great Lakes swung a cold front through during the overnight hours. A line of thunderstorms formed in a high shear, low CAPE environment, with embedded isolated severe thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Low pressure positioned over the Great Lakes swung a cold front through during the overnight hours. A line of thunderstorms formed in a high shear, low CAPE environment, with embedded isolated severe thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 1:42 PM EST, 6 hours 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LGT RA IS MOVG NE TOWARDS NJ/DE...AND A SHORT WV IS OVR
W.V IS PRSNTLY ROUNDING A LARGE UPR LVL TROF. IN BTWN SKIES HV BKN
OUT ACROSS THE FA. THIS WL LKLY AFFECT THE MID ATLC RGN BTWN 6 PM
AND 11 PM...FM SW TO NE. THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA HAS BEEN
PLACED AT A LOW CHC OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE IAD VWP SHOWS 50 KT AT
10K FT. THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH AN ELEV TO BRING THAT TO THE
SFC...AND CAPE IS NOT STRONG TDA. REGARDLESS RDR OPERATOR IS AT
THE READY.
SHORT WV TRACKS INTO NJ AFTR MDNGT. CD FNT WL BE PUSHING THRU THE
CWA BY WED MRNG. LOWS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE
L60S IN THE CITIES. MUCH OF THE RGN E OF THE MTNS WL DROP INTO THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS SOME FAIRLY PLSNT AUTUMNAL WX FOR THE MIDWEEK. HIGH PRES
MOVG OVR THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WED W/ HIGHS
IN THE 70S. WED NGT LOOKING GOOD W/ LOWS ABT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN TNGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRY TO SNEAK OVERHEAD SEMI-PARALLEL TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THIS
SHOULD BE MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAINFALL VERSUS A CONVECTIVE
TYPE CONSIDERING THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR REGION...IF NOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-THIRD OF OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BE FORCED BY A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AT 500 MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE
IN THE DAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE EAST.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER
SOUTH AGAIN AND THEN STALL...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH REMAINS IN
QUESTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE REGION WILL BE LEFT IN A EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT.
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FORCING SHOWERS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING. A LARGE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS FOR THE RMDNR OF THE AFTN. NEXT ROUND OF RW/TRW PRNSTLY
IN SRN W.V. AND TURNING NE INTO THE MID ATLC. THESE ARE XPCTD TO
IMPACT THE TAF SITES - 1ST CHO AND LASTLY BWI/MTN...BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. CIG DEGRADATION IS PSBL W/ THESE.
VFR CONDS WED BEHIND A CD FNT.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH EXCEPTION TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS WILL
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
S FLOW 10-20 KTS FRI-FRI NIGHT W/ SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AS -RA
MOVES ACROSS. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT W/ TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP LENDING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
DURING THIS TIME. CIG RESTRICTIONS LKLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND AIDED BY MOIST E FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN PLACEMENT OF A FRONT
THAT WILL FORCE THE PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED OVR THE WATERS..BUT ARE XPCTD TO INCRS AGN AS
SOME SUN BRAKS DVLP AND WIND IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SFC. RW/ISOLD
TSTMS ARE XPCTD THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WL HV THE PTNL TO BRING
WINDS TO THE SFC CAPABLE OF SPAWNING SMW-LVL WINDS.
A FNT WL BE MOVG THRU THE WATERS LATE TNGT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
BEHIND THE FNT THRU MID AFTN WED.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING TO NEAR SCA LEVELS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH -RA AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE LOW AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIGHTNESS
OF THE GRADIENT AND THAT IS IN QUESTION AS MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH OF THE WATERS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RMN ELEVATED ALONG THE MD CHES BAY AND TIDAL PTMC...AND
W/ CONT SRLY FLOW HV XTND THE CFW INTO WED MRNG. HOPING THAT THIS
ADVSRY WL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED AFTWARDS AS WINDS WL BE TURNING TO
THE W AND BEGIN EMPTYING OUT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ007-
011-014-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW/DFHHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 657 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 081200- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 657 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 66 IN VIRGINIA AND HIGHWAY 50 IN MARYLAND. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR HARFORD... BALTIMORE...ANNE ARUNDEL...CALVERT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS WASHINGTON DC AND ALEXANDRIA/ARLINGTON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SHOWERS MAY NECESSITATE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER INTO WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-081200- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 657 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING IN NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. JACKSON
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
808 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SE DAHLGREN 38.31N 77.03W
10/07/2014 M40 MPH ANZ536 VA BUOY
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1401016
JACKSONThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:53 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down across the road at the corner of Miller School Rd and Samuel Miller Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, October 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 546045.