Heavy Rain in Texas, November 4, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORE RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NE AR TO KOCH TO KAUS AND INTO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH CONVECTION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SOLID RAIN BEHIND IT FOR ABOUT 200NM.
WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO PERSIST ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT
KACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 21Z.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. KACT SHOULD BECOME AND REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY GENERALLY 8-13 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

THE 05/00Z KFWD SOUNDING SHOWS THE FREEZING LEVEL SATURATED NEAR
11700 WITH SATURATION EXTENDING TO NEAR 16500 FEET.   75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014/
THE AXIS OF AN ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AS IT
SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM
WEST OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUES
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THESE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR NEAR
THE COLD FRONT WHERE MODEST SURFACE-BASE INSTABILITY RESIDES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO EXIST NEAR THE FRONT WHERE
PWATS REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 INCHES. THIS IS INTERESTING
BECAUSE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE IS
LIFTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT JUST OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM MAY ADVECT NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO TONIGHT AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING RAINFALL NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARY SLOW DOWN...IT SHOULD STILL MAKE IT SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY THE TIME THE HEAVIER RAIN RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...KEEPING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL...WE EXPECT SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AN INCH OF RAIN WITH ANOTHER INCH
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CUT-OFF
LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WHILE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OF OUR MECHANISMS OF
GENERATING RAIN BY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE EAST COAST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A WHILE...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME AND SENDING OCCASIONAL REINFORCEMENTS
OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COOLEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  60  48  69  45 /  80  50  10   5   5
WACO, TX              52  61  49  69  44 /  90  70  30  10   5
PARIS, TX             51  61  46  69  41 /  80  50  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            48  63  44  70  41 /  70  40   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          49  62  45  71  40 /  80  50   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            50  62  48  68  45 /  80  50  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           51  61  48  70  43 /  90  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         52  60  49  71  44 /  90  70  30  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            53  59  50  67  45 /  90  70  30  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  63  44  70  41 /  70  40   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
250 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN INSTANCES OF
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF
A COMANCHE TO CLEBURNE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN INSTANCES OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

15-BAIN