A line of thunderstorm activity blossomed across the eastern Texas Panhandle during the late evening hours of the 11th as an upper level disturbance lifted out across the Great Plains from near the four corners region. A retreating dryline and relatively strong spring cold front were also present and combined with the upper level support to produce a deep layer of lift.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorm activity blossomed across the eastern Texas Panhandle during the late evening hours of the 11th as an upper level disturbance lifted out across the Great Plains from near the four corners region. A retreating dryline and relatively strong spring cold front were also present and combined with the upper level support to produce a deep layer of lift. Severe winds and hail impacted portions of Hall County, namely near and north of Lakeview.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 9:32 PM CST, 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1032 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 .UPDATE... WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WE DID ALSO ADJUST THE WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS /AND OTHER RELATED GRIDS/ TO REFLECT THE QUICKER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO OTHER UPDATES WERE MADE ATTM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/ UPDATE... HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE ONGOING FORECAST AND HEADLINES. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED THIS EVENING AND WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM. IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WESTWARD TO ROUGHLY A PLAINVIEW TO LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE AS OF 02Z. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...IMPROVED HUMIDITIES HAVE BROUGHT AN END TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHILE ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRIMMED THE RED FLAG WARNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO A CONCLUSION AREA WIDE BY 10 PM. THE OTHER CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE...SOMETHING THAT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE ON THIS DATE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO LUBBOCK TO TAHOKA LINE...IN EFFECT TO 2 AM. A FEW TOWERS HAVE ALREADY TRIED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK IN CLOSE VICINITY TO THE DRYLINE...BUT AS OF YET HAVE FAILED TO GET ANCHORED AND GROW INTO FULL FLEDGED STORMS. STILL...SOME HIGH-RES NWP DO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THEM TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL...IT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND EVALUATE THE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING...AND IF STORMS FAIL TO TAKE ROOT...THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY. ALSO...WE WILL KEEP EYES ON A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH MAY ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOP AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/ AVIATION... GUSTY SRLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...DROPPING BELOW 20KTS SUSTAINED. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THEN NORTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT KCDS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WE/VE INDICATED WITH A VCTS. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE VICNITY OF KLBB. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/ SHORT TERM... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLIER UPDATE. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS POINT TO THE DRYLINE STALLING A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT /GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83/ HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER SO FAR AS EVIDENCE BY THE LACK OF AGITATED CU COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLES. 20Z LAPS INDICATES SBCAPE OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH WEAKENING CINH. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT...HIGH BASED TOWERING CU SHOULD DEVELOP WITH A SMALL WINDOW THAT SOME OF THESE BECOME CUMULONIMBUS THRU THE EARLY EVENING. EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAZARD-WISE...THE WIND ADVISORY IS SHAPING UP WELL AND THE 3-HR RED FLAG CRITERIA IS ALSO ON TRACK TO VERIFY. OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BROAD CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH LITTLE/NO CHANGE IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS EXPECTED. IN THIS PATTERN...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE A STRONG RETREAT ONTO THE CAPROCK AND WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME NOCTURNAL TSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SRN AZ AND SWRN NM LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD GRAZE THE SOUTH PLAINS AFTER SUNSET AND IMPROVE CHANCES FOR SOME DEEPER LIFT BEFORE A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TRANSLATE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK. KEPT SEVERE MENTION OVERNIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 60S AND AMPLIFY CAPE VALUES. PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER 06Z MAY BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN 20 TO 30 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS THAT TREND MORE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE WITH TIME. EVEN SO...WINDOW FOR TORNADOES COULD OPEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS 0-1KM BULK SHEAR RISES TO 30+ KNOTS. PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DRY UP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE REGION AHEAD OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND STEADY NORTH WINDS. LONG TERM... TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS CAA WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS THROUGH MID WED WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS AREAS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE MANY MYSTERIES DURING THIS TIME IS WHETHER A CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS. THE NAM HAS BEEN ADAMANT ABOUT PRODUCING COLD STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN LOCATION AND PROPAGATION. YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM YIELDED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH A SOUTHEASTERN PROPAGATION. TODAYS 12Z RUN YIELD STRATIFORM PRECIP FORMING IN NORTHEAST NM TUES MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR WITH LESS COVERAGE AND THE GFS SHOWS ONLY SMALL QPF PATCHES AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THE GFS DID BACK DOWN ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE PUSHING THRU AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM SHOWS MORE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET THAN THE OTHERS AND HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS. WHILE IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE FOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA TO HELP AID IN PRECIP CHANCES...MY CONCERN LIES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NORTH AND DRY. IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN AS IN THE SITUATION THE NAM IS PRESENTING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE RAISED POPS TRENDING WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THEM BELOW MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE TIMING OF THE LIFT. WHILE THE NAM AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT DOESNT ALWAYS MEAN CORRECT...BUT ONE CAN HOPE. THE OTHER GREAT MYSTERY IS THE TEMP FORECAST FOR TUES AND WED WHICH WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON IF PRECIP ACTUALLY PRECIPITATES. NAM MOS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. THE GFS BRINGS HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SHOWN. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE GFS FOR TEMPS AS THEY SEEM MORE REASONABLE. NEAR FREEZING TO LIGHT FREEZING TEMPS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES CLOSE TO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND WITH A 582 BUBBLE PUSHING OVER THE REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE HIGH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PERMANENT AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PUSH A CLOSED LOW EASTWARD FROM THE PAC COAST WITH THE ECMWF PROVIDING A DEEPER LOW THAN THE GFS. ALDRICH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 43 63 35 59 33 / 0 0 10 10 10 TULIA 46 66 37 61 36 / 10 0 10 10 10 PLAINVIEW 48 68 38 61 36 / 20 0 10 10 10 LEVELLAND 51 68 40 62 37 / 10 0 10 10 10 LUBBOCK 53 72 40 62 38 / 20 0 10 10 10 DENVER CITY 52 74 41 63 37 / 20 0 10 10 10 BROWNFIELD 53 72 43 63 37 / 20 0 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 56 73 45 67 40 / 50 10 10 10 10 SPUR 64 76 44 65 40 / 50 10 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 68 78 48 66 42 / 50 10 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 33/23
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 TXZ021>044-130330- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT CONVECTIVE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO LUBBOCK TO TAHOKA LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH THE RISK OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH COLDER AIR COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 TXZ024-025-120415- BRISCOE-HALL- 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRISCOE AND HALL COUNTIES... AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST BRISCOE COUNTY ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SILVERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. IN ADDITION...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 40 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LAT...LON 3474 10119 3475 10060 3440 10104 3454 10131 TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 224DEG 35KT 3459 10108 24
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:30 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous large tree limbs were blown down north of Lakeview as a thunderstorm produced severe wind gusts.
A citizen reported quarter size hail in Lakeview.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 506362, 506358.