Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 PM CDT Sun May 11 2014

...Update to mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

Special 18Z KDDC raob shows just a little bit of CIN remaining. Won't
be long before convection develops. Visible satellite imagery shows
increasing cumulus along the dryline/front. HRRR indicates thunderstorms
developing along the Highway 283 corridor in the 3-4 pm time range.
Right moving Bunkers shows propagation vectors northeasterly at 45 kt.
Initial threat will be large hail (up to 20! on the LHP using NAM thermodynamic
and kinematic variables) and damaging outflow winds. There is an small
window of tornadic opportunity between 7 and 9 pm as low level winds
back across central/south central-Kansas but all the big wedge/strong tornadoes
should remain across Nebraska/Iowa with just small spin ups/weak tornadoes
in our area, if possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

Thunderstorms are likely across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas today as an upper level trough digs further
southeast into the Four Corners Region. As the upper level system
approaches, short range models indicate an upper level jet
intensifying as it lifts out of the trough axis northeast across the
Western High Plains. Meanwhile, deep low level moisture will
continue to lift northward into south central and eastern portions
of southwest Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline this afternoon.
While dynamic support becomes increasingly favorable during the
afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front as it surges southeastward through western Kansas,
slamming into the dryline while capping continues to erode. Based
on NAM/GFS model soundings, the potential for severe weather exists
with steep lapse rates developing and SBCAPE values in excess of
2500 J/KG ahead of the dryline. Ample deep layer shear and favorable
low level shear will support increased tornado potential across
central and possibly south central Kansas toward Sunday evening.
Otherwise, golf ball to tennis ball size hail and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph will be possible with any storm that becomes severe.

Strong southerly winds are expected to develop across central and
portions of southwest Kansas this afternoon as surface low pressure
deepens across extreme southwest Kansas and the panhandles of
Oklahoma and Texas. This will create a tight pressure gradient
across the aforementioned area resulting in stronger southerly
winds. Additionally, the NAM and GFS show H85 winds of 40 to 50kt
setting up here as well. As the cap erodes this afternoon, these
winds are expected to mix down to the surface enhancing wind
strength. Therefore, a wind advisory will be issued for the affected
area this afternoon/evening.

The warming trend continues today as surface low pressure lee of the
Rockies strengthens increasing a strong southerly flow into central
and southwest Kansas. This will draw warmer air into central and
southwest Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front. The NAM/GFS
show H85 temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 20s(C) across
the area. Considering the cold front is not expected move in until
mid to late afternoon, highs are likely to reach the upper 80s(F) to
the lower 90s(F) in across central and much of southwest Kansas this
afternoon. Look for lows down into the 40s(F) across west central
Kansas to the 50s(F) in south central Kansas tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

An upper level longwave trough will be moving across the Plains on
Tuesday but should be dry with the moisture pushed east of the area.
Colder temperatures will accompany this trough with overnight lows
on Monday night into the mid 30s and highs on Tuesday in the low to
mid 60s. Strong northwest winds will mix down to the surface with
winds of 15 to 30 mph and partly cloudy skies.

For Wednesday into Thursday, dry northwesterly upper level flow will
follow with highs slowly warming into the upper 60s and 70s.
Wednesday morning may be the coldest morning with light winds and
lows in the low to mid 30s.

For Friday and Saturday, a few showers and thunderstorms may form as
as some upper air disturbances in northwest flow aloft interact with
increasing upslope moisture. Lows will be in the 40s and highs
around 70 to 75.

On Sunday, of next week, upper level ridging is forecast with dry
and warmer temps around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VFR conditions through much of the TAF. Main exception is for KDDC/KHYS
this afternoon/eve, where convection could create temporary MVFR cigs in
heavy thunderstorm activity. Southerly winds 20-30 kt will become
northerly 15-28 kt in the wake of a fropa later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  55  35  63 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  43  52  34  62 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  43  54  34  61 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  45  56  34  62 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  45  54  35  63 /  60  30   0   0
P28  52  62  40  66 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ046-065-066-
078>081-088>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074>076-
084>086.

&&

MESOSCALE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

KSZ074>076-084>086-120915-
STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT TO 9 PM CDT. SEE THE
LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-077-087-120915-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-GRAY-
MEADE-
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 /310 AM MDT SUN MAY 11 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE
LINE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ046-065-066-078>081-088>090-120915-
RUSH-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-CLARK-COMANCHE-
BARBER-
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE
LINE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT TO 8 PM CDT. SEE THE LATEST
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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