Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
207 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT AND DRY-LINE
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE NEAR
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING...WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN THE 21-23Z
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL SUPERCELL MODE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
EASTWARD MIGRATING COLD FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT MORE PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ANY
SUPERCELL STORMS AND DURING TRANSITION TO A QUASI-LINEAR
MODE...ESPECIALLY PREFERENTIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN MOST CELLS ALONG
THE FRONT. THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE TURNPIKE...THOUGH MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE
MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LINGER ON
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THOUGH THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS
MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS BEFORE THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE BASE OF
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY GIVE
RISE TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF
COOL AIR AND FRONT PUSHES SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH SOME MODERATION
BY THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

NO DOUBT THERE ARE MAJOR CONCERNS..NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THAT OF
+TSRAGR TO ALL AREAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE ACROSS
CNTRL KS THIS EVE. CHANGES WERE MADE TO INHERITED FCST. THEY WERE TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT & ASSOCIATED +TSRAGR TO SC & SE KS
AS IT DEFINITELY APPEARS THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH KHUT TIL ~12Z...KICT
TIL ~15Z & KCNU TIL MON AFTERNOON. AS SUCH THE ARRIVAL OF +TSRAGR HAS
LIKEWISE BEEN DELAYED TO THESE 3 TERMINALS TO 08Z-10Z. CIGS TO QUICKLY
PLUNGE TO IFR STATUS ALONG WITH VSBYS AS +TSRAGR MOVE THROUGH. AS SUCH
HAVE REMAINED PESSIMISTIC THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY
WITH KRSL & KSLN NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR STATUS TIL EARLY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MEANINGFUL RAINS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR RENEWED GREEN-UP ACROSS DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN SO...A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RISK FOR
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MAY EXIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  66  42  66 /  60  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      56  62  41  65 /  70  30  10  10
NEWTON          58  64  41  65 /  60  40  10  10
ELDORADO        63  69  42  65 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  71  42  66 /  60  60  10  10
RUSSELL         48  55  38  63 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      49  57  38  63 /  80  20  10  10
SALINA          56  61  40  65 /  80  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       56  61  41  65 /  80  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  75  46  66 /  60  70  40  10
CHANUTE         69  73  45  65 /  60  70  30  10
IOLA            68  73  45  65 /  60  70  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  74  46  65 /  60  70  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
323 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GREATEST RISK
IS ALONG AND WEST OF A SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO ANTHONY LINE.
SUPER-CELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON...AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING DOWN-BURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...AND TORNADOES. AS THE LINE OF STORMS
MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE KANSAS TURNPIKE LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THE RISK OF HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LESSEN.
HOWEVER STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY STILL CONTAIN HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL MINOR
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
AND TRAIN ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO MID-EVENING. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FOR RAIN-FREE AREAS THAT ARE WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO
ANTHONY LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED