High Wind in Texas, April 3, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
139 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
WHO KNEW THERE COULD BE SO MUCH WEATHER WITH NO PRECIPITATION?
INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GET CUTE, WE JUST BLANKETED THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN A WIND ADVISORY AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8
PM. HOWEVER, THE WORST WINDS AND DUST WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 7 PM.

MEANWHILE, THERE IS ACTUALLY PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. IN FACT, AT LAST OBSERVATION, CLAYTON REPORTED MODERATE
RAIN AT 40 F. THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH
OF AN ADRIAN TO MIAMI LINE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AWW WILL BE
IN EFFECT AT KAMA 20Z-01Z. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
BLDU, WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO AT LEAST THE LOW-END MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER, IFR OR EVEN LOWER VSBYS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY
20Z-23Z.

HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AT KDHT 20Z-23Z AND LOW CONFIDENCE
AT KGUY 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT AT KDHT AND KGUY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KDHT AND KGUY IS MODERATE.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
BOOTLEG AND HEREFORD HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON'T
THINK WE'LL SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THERE
COULD BE A ROGUE GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH IF MIXING TAPS INTO THE
MID-LEVEL JET. WE MAY ALSO END UP HAVING TO ISSUE A SHORT-FUSE BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEREFORD AWOS IS ALREADY OBSERVING
A VISIBILITY OF 5 SM, BUT WE'LL HOLD OFF TO SEE IF VISIBILITIES DROP
TO A MILE OR LESS. HOWEVER, IT IS CONCERNING THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD, WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD PROXY FOR THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DUST REGIONS.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE'LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT'S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

WE'VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY'LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE'VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE'S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.

AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.

AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

KS/JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-032100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1241 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH 8 PM. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
UNTIL 8 PM. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DUST...WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
227 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE AMARILLO          35.22N 101.72W
04/03/2014  M60 MPH          POTTER             TX   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1400251

JACKSON