Wildfire in Oregon, September 1 to 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.