Flood and Heavy Rain in Iowa, September 1 to 2, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
446 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>049-057>059-061-070>072-
081>083-092-093-021100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-AUDUBON-
GUTHRIE-DALLAS-JASPER-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
446 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT.

IAZ060-073-021100-
POLK-WARREN-
446 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT.

IAZ027-028-038-039-050-062-074-075-084>086-094>097-021100-
BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-TAMA-POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-
LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
446 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY
THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY PRODUCE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY SEVERE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT.