High Wind in Oregon, February 7, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY SHARP
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LAST HOUR ROSEBURG WAS 40 DEGREES WHILE
EUGENE WAS 21 DEGREES. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE FREEZING
LEVEL NEAR 3700 FEET. THAT TRANSLATES TO A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 3000
FEET. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. IF NOTHING ELSE, SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THIS
MORNING, THEN RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
WILL LEAVE SEXTON SUMMIT IN THE CLEAR AND EXPECT JUST PLAIN RAIN
THERE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE'LL BE ADJUSTING SNOW ADVISORIES
TO ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR DOUGLAS...JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES
TODAY.

THE NEXT STORM WILL MOVE INT SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CAL.
WE'LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 07/12Z TAF CYCLE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN THIS MORNING. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DAMMED UP NORTH OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY SOUTH. VIS
WILL COME DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES BUT PREDOMINANTLY IT WILL BE THE
CIGS THAT STAY MVFR. AS RAIN SPREAD FURTHERS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY,
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS WITH MOUNTAINS
BEING OBSCURED.  WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. /FB

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM HAWAII ALL THE WAY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER MUCH OF THE AREA SAW MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW
YESTERDAY, WE'LL SEE MORE OF THE SAME TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A MORE/LESS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS COMING AT A FAIRLY
REGULAR PACE THIS WEEKEND RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SUCH SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OUT ALONG 40N AND
BEYOND 130W. THIS LOW WILL TAKE DIRECT AIM AT OUR CWA LATER THIS
MORNING SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS ARE NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. AT THIS EARLY HOUR, IT'S ONLY 21 DEGREES IN EUGENE, BUT
IT'S 40 DEGREES IN ROSEBURG! SOME OF THAT COLDER AIR WILL JUST
BARELY BLEED INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING
WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 1000 FEET. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE MOVES IN...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. HAVE UPPED SNOW LEVELS A BIT
TODAY AND THIS HAS CAUSED SOME ALTERATIONS TO THE WINTER HEADLINES
IN PLACE, INCLUDING SOME CANCELLATIONS. FOR ALL OF THE DETAILS
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...PLEASE SEE WSWMFR. IN
ADDITION, A HIGH WIND WARNING (NPWMFR) WAS ISSUED FOR THE COAST AS
THE LOW MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SSW 925 MB
WINDS OF 55 TO 60KT ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GENERATE GUSTS TO 60 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY
HANDLED IN THE WINTER PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, SINCE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY BELOW 3000 FEET, A
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 50 MPH
GUSTS.

MULTIPLE WAVES WILL RIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SO,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER. EVEN SO...SOUTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN IN THE
MOIST, WESTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
VERY HIGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE TO ABOVE 5000 FEET AND MAY EVEN GET AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY, SO THERE'LL
LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR AWHILE, BUT THE NEXT
WET SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SPILDE

AVIATION...THERE HAS BEEN A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THE FLOW HAS REORIENTED BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS HAS
GENERALLY RESULTED IN CEILINGS DIPPING INTO THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE.
THIS MORNING A NEW WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON AND STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FURTHER. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY IN VALLEY ORIENTED TO THIS FLOW, WHILE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOSTLY OBSCURED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES DUE TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 50 TO 60
KNOT RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. BTL

MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING GALE FORCE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WIND SEAS BECOME
STEEP TO VERY STEEP. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IT WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 2500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 2500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ025.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 1500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 1500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ025.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ083>085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR FOR CAZ080-081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

MAP/MAP/MAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
138 PM PST FRI FEB 7 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             4 WSW KLAMATH FALLS     42.19N 121.84W
02/07/2014  M1.0 INCH        KLAMATH            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.13 WATER EQUIVALENT.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
210 PM PST FRI FEB 7 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW BROOKINGS         42.12N 124.34W
02/07/2014  M0.55 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10AM TO 10AM WINDS SE 12-15 MPH GUSTING TO
            20.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM