A strong upper level short wave and associated jet streak moved into the region during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a warm front near the Ohio River focused instability along and south of the boundary where the storms developed in a favorable environment.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A strong upper level short wave and associated jet streak moved into the region during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a warm front near the Ohio River focused instability along and south of the boundary where the storms developed in a favorable environment. These storms produced damaging straight line winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 1:36 PM EST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 236 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY COVERED BY A LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING THUNDER AND BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THOUGH THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION AS WELL. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...GUSTY SSW FLOW HAS LED TO INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AROUND 300-600 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE A FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY (NORTH OF WHICH...LITTLE TO NO SURFACE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED) WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON A LINE FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA TO FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO. SOUTH OF THIS...THE EVENTUAL CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ROOTED AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND CAPABLE OF TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A STRONG WIND PROFILE. THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET IS MOVING OVER THE AREA. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 40-60 KNOTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL BE EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (AIDED BY THE SSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER) COMES ALONG WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOWEST ONE OR TWO KILOMETERS. THE CURVED HODOGRAPHS COMBINE WITH THE DEEPER SHEAR AND MOIST CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA NOW COVERED BY TORNADO WATCH 523. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT (FREEZING LEVELS OF 8-10 THOUSAND FEET) WILL ALLOW FOR HAIL TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS CERTAINLY PRESENT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFFECTED AREA MAY SEEM COOL AND DAMP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND PROFILES THAT ARE DEFINITELY NOT STABLE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN CWA. HRRR/SPC-WRF UPDRAFT HELICITY PRODUCTS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WATCH...AND TORNADO PARAMETERS CALCULATED FROM SREF/RAP PROJECTIONS ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY ROUGHLY 01Z. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW DOES TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A DROP IN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK VERY DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS CALM CONSIDERABLY HEADED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...QUICK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ALOFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG A THETA-E BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE ILN CWA. THE DEVELOPING FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE AN IMPACT AT THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MOVING INTO KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THEN DIVERGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTH... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT DURING THE WEEKEND... AS THE ECMWF POINTS TO A DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY... WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF SHOT OF DRY AIR BEFORE PRECIP ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TREND OF SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE ECMWF PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE GFS TENDS TO BE FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF... AND WE HAVE OPTED TO TEND TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS DO KEY IN ON MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THESE VALUES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST...AND AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KILN...KCVG AND KLUK WITH A LESSER THREAT FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCTS AT KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SHOULD TEMPO TSRA BE NEEDED FOR THESE SITES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...OVERALL DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. PCPN SHOULD END...AND DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD JUST SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND FLOW MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH AT KLUK FOR SOME IFR VSBYS DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. CAA CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ONWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...BINAU/SHOBE2 AVIATION...HICKMAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1246 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-081015- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN- UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING- PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE- 1246 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-081015- FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE- KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS- FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING- HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 1246 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0348 PM TSTM WND DMG CORINTH 38.50N 84.56W
10/07/2014 GRANT KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
ONE TREE DOWN
&&
HUGHESPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW COLUMBUS 38.46N 84.64W
10/07/2014 OWEN KY EMERGENCY MNGR
SVRL LG TREES DOWN SE PART OF COUNTY
&&
HUGHESSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
KYZ097>099-072045-
MASON KY-ROBERTSON KY-BRACKEN KY-
413 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BRACKEN...
ROBERTSON AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...
AT 412 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR US ROUTE
62 AT STATE ROUTE 19...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...MOUNT OLIVET.
ALSO...SANTA FE...KENTONTOWN...PIQUA...MITCHELLS MILL...BLUE LICKS
BATTLEFIELD...BURIKA...SARDIS...ALHAMBRA...MURPHYSVILLE AND PEED ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
LAT...LON 3848 8417 3850 8419 3853 8419 3854 8417
3855 8417 3855 8422 3858 8421 3857 8377
3848 8378 3845 8386 3848 8393 3846 8397
3842 8399PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
424 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG MAYSVILLE 38.64N 83.75W
10/07/2014 MASON KY PUBLIC
DOWN POWER LINES AND ROOF DAMAGE ON MAPLE LEAF ROAD.
&&
ANOVAKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG MAYSVILLE 38.64N 83.75W
10/07/2014 MASON KY BROADCAST MEDIA
GAS PUMPS AND TREES REPORTED IN THE ROADWAY. REPORT IS
FROM NEAR MARKET SQUARE DRIVE.
&&
ANOVAKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG MAYSVILLE 38.64N 83.75W
10/07/2014 MASON KY BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES DOWN AA HIGHWAY AT TUCKER DRIVE.
&&
ANOVAKThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:48 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were knocked down.
A few trees were knocked down.
A few trees were knocked down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, October 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 539320, 539321, 539322.