Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, June 21, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
233 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS HAS
INITIALIZED A BIT BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS...SO
WILL UTILIZE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AROUND 00Z
IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL SHIFT IN STORMS
TO THE EAST AS THE LLJ INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00-06Z IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
TROUGH MOVE SLOWLY EAST. CAN/T RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN ANYWHERE GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING STORMS...SO WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BOTH FLOODING THREATS AND SEVERE THREATS THROUGH AT LEAST
6Z.

ON SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
INTO SATURATED AREAS OF MN LAKES COUNTRY...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND NEAR ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ON MONDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AND ONCE AGAIN WITH PWATS OVER
1 INCH...ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
SATURATED GROUND AND ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.

ON TUE...THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING LATER IN THE DAY IN THE NORTH...BUT THE
ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL JUST
MENTION 30 POPS FOR ALL AREAS...GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
USED A BLENDED SOLN ATTM. TEMPERATURES START ON THE COOL SIDE AS THE
500MB LOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE DAKOTAS...BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING
TO THE EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME
IMPULSES MOVING THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. LOOKING
FOR SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STORMS AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING
SO WILL GO WITH VICINITY WORDING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

RUNOFF FROM ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON
THE ND/MN TRIBS AND ON THE MAINSTEM RED. ABERCROMBIE ON THE WILD
RICE REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...ALONG WITH SABIN ON S.
BUFFALO. ON THE RED...OSLO IS APPROACHING MODERATE WITH FARGO IN
MODERATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD IMPACT RIVER
FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FALLS. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF BELTRAMI COUNTY...WHERE THE
TAMARAC RIVER HAS BEEN OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR WASKISH.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL BELTRAMI
COUNTY WITH THE TAMARAC RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR WASKISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NDZ016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ001>003-007-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
613 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
613 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE SOUTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.