Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 9, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND MOVE OVER THE REGION AND THEN WASH OUT ON SATURDAY. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...VERY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO CATCH UP WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACRS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
THE NC PIEDMONT (WHERE THEY EARLIER SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY) THIS
AFTN. I HAVE BUMPED UP POP TO CHC IN THE ERN ZONES WHERE IT USED TO
BE DRY OR ONLY SLGT CHC. THERE IS STILL ONLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
PER THE LAPS ANALYSIS...AND SHEAR IS WEEK. SO EXPECT MAINLY SHWRS
AND A FEW GARDEN VARIETY TSTMS. WITH THAT SAID...THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG ACRS THE ERN 1/3RD
OF THE CWFA. SO EVEN SHWRS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINK
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW...GIVEN THE LOW CAPE AND SHEAR. TO THE
WEST...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...WITH JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS.

LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SHWRS SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. BETTER INSTBY AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SWRN
AND CENTRAL NC MTNS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE THREAT. SO THE POPS RAMPING UP TO SOLID CHC TO
LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING...HIGHEST WEST...STILL LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE DEEP LAYER RH MAXIMUM AXIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWFA
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL STILL BE BACK WEST ACRS
THE OH/TN VLYS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE IN GENERAL FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN SHWR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SCATTERED LINGERING
ACTIVITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S MTNS AND LWR-MID 60S
PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY...SOME OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF
MCS ACRS THE OH VLY...TURNING TOWARD THE SW TOWARD THE NRN MTNS
AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WITH NO MENTION OF THIS IN THE
SPC OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE...I ACTUALLY EXPECT A LULL IN COVERAGE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS INSTBY WILL BE AT ITS LOWEST.
STILL...POPS ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE ONGOING MOIST SW FLOW.
THERE SHUD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY...SO IT/S DIFFICULT
TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTBY THERE WILL BE FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTN. WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC EAST TO LIKELY WEST FOR SHWRS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY MODEST CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. SO SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. THE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHUD KEEP TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S WEST TO
LWR 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRI...MAJOR HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE SE LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL BE FULLY IN PLACE BY MON...WITH A 588 DM H5 RIDGE ENTRENCHED
OVER THE SE. MAINLY A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE SUN AND MON AFTN/EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT S TO SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVIDE ISOLD SHRA COVERAGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS
EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OF THE
WEEKEND MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
INSOLATION IMPROVES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS AND SLIGHT MID
LEVEL DRYING OCCURS BEFORE THE SE RIDGE REBOUNDS IN EARNEST. WILL
FEATURE SOLID SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...EACH
AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT MINS AND MAXES TO RUN TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS AND DEEP UPPER
TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE LONG MODELS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SINCE YESTERDAYS FCST YET
THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 TO 24HRS FASTER WITH THE TROFS APPROACH
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN. THE OVERALL TREND OF THE FCST
HAS BEEN TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS A SLOWER...ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH I
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE. AT ANY RATE...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
THE TROF SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND STILL BE OVER THE REGION BY NEW DAY
7.

AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM SLY LOW LVL FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE CWFA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS WITH THE UPPER
LVL PATTERN...THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE FRONT IS
NOW MORE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS AND BY EARLY FRI...THE SYSTEM SHOULD EAST OF THE CWFA. SOME
DEGREE OF DRIER AND COOLER SFC RIDGING SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FROPA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODELS STILL DEVELOP SOME SORT
OF LOW TO OUR SE JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE CANADIAN NOW TRYING TO SPIN UP A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL
SYSTEM. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. I DID PUSH BACK THE BEST WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TS BY ABOUT 6 TO 12HRS BASED ON A SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH AND FROPA.
BY 00Z FRI...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE REST OF FRI. TEMPS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT
ON WED AND THURS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THE FRONT PASSES THRU.
ON FRI...VALUES WILL PERSIST AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST...THICKENING MID AND CLOUDS SHUD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTBY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE ENUF
INSTBY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING
ACRS THE KCLT AREA. THERE IS STILL AN ISOLD TSTM THREAT...ESP FROM
ABOUT 23Z TO 02Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE SEEMS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
TEMPO FOR TS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS...BUT OVERALL TRIGGERING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SHUD WEAKEN. WILL GO WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BEYOND ABOUT
05Z. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBY...EXCEPT IF ANY SHRA/TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UNTIL
ABOUT 22-23Z...THEN DIMINISH.

ELSEWHERE...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
AREA...WHICH SEEMS TO BE LIMITING SHRA DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. STILL
EXPECT SOLID COVERAGE ACRS THE NC MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BY
MID-LATE AFTN...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SUB-SEVERE TSTMS AROUND THE AREA WITH PEAK INSTBY IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIME FRAME. WILL GO WITH VCSH OR VCTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHUD
DECREASE. AS WITH KCLT...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UNTIL LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THEN DIMINISH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG OR
STRATUS POTENTIAL...DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THRU
SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND INSTBY INCREASES AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
554 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THEN OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

SCZ007-012-013-092015-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND NORTHERN LAURENS COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAURENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ENOREE...
  CROSS KEYS...
  BUFFALO...
  UNION...
  JONESVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3457 8221 3491 8168 3490 8166 3490 8165
      3472 8149 3442 8208

RWH