Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 20, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN
TODAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE ACRS UPPER EAST
TN AND SW VA UNDERNEATH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING LIKELY COMING FROM THE MEAN NWLY
FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
MOVED ACRS THE NC BORDER AND OVERALL IT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE NRN
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THRU MIDDAY FOLLOWING THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING SEEMS TO BE ACTING AGAINST THE LEADING CELLS
ATTM AND THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE RATHER LOW.

LATEST RUNS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW FAIRLY LIMITED
COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE 12Z NAM FOLLOWS THE 06Z IN
OVERDOING SBCAPE THIS AFTN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...HAVING 4000
OR MORE J/KG ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. CURRENT READINGS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S AND WITH MEAN NLY FLOW IT JUST DOESN/T
SEEM PLAUSIBLE TO EXPECT THEM TO SKYROCKET. 12Z AREA RAOBS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR JUST OFF THE SFC AND SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
RAP...SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTN. CAPE VALUES
FROM THE RAP ARE ACCORDINGLY MUCH LOWER. I WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS TO SEE IF THEY INDEED MIX
OUT...AND HAVE PRELIMINARILY LOWERED POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTN CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST ALLOWING
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO FLATTEN.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GA/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO
PREVAILING WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THAN DAYS
PAST...THEREBY LEADING TO LESS DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...IT IS
STILL JUNE AND LAPSE RATES...AND MOISTURE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF LIFT IS PROVIDED.  WITH
THAT...THE LATEST 12KM NAM INDICATES A SERIES OF H5 IMPULSES
EJECTING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER NW FLOW AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  EXPECTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN PEAK HEATING COMBINES WITH THE
FIRST OF THE SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES.  THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE MIDLANDS AFTER SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...EXPECTING AN MCS TO BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPS
OUT OF EASTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN.  IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT TOO
WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...COULD SEE THIS MCS ENTERING
THE TERRAIN...POTENTIALLY PUSHING INTO THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE DECAYING
BY EARLY MORNING.  THUS...FORECAST WILL FAVOR INCREASING POPS TO
SOLID CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING ACROSS THE EAST LATE IN
THE EVENING.  POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL OF ABOVE MENTIONED MCS AND WEAK NW
UPSLOPE FLOW.  NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP DUE TO HIGH LFCS AND POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE
DOWNBURST WITH ANY COLLAPSING STORMS AS INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE
PRESENT PER LATEST NAM FORECAST PROFILES.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT H5 HEIGHTS
WILL SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE REGION SAT/SUN AS AN UPPER H5 HIGH
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES OFF THE NE COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL TRIGGER
MCS/MCC OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRI NIGHT AND PROPAGATE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT THRU EARLY SAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/CAPE OVERNIGHT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE
POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SAT MORNING. FOR SAT AFTERNOON...A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY IN THE NC PIEDMONT
ZONES. THE NAM/GFS KEEPS THE CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE
MTN/UPSTATE SC GIVEN MUCH DRIER PROFILE IN PREDOMINANT N/NW FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE HELP OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MTNS.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE
REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MCS/MCC DEVELOPING OVER IN THE
VICINITY OF KY/OHIO VALLEY...PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUN AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE TN
BORDERLINE AROUND 21Z SUN PER LATEST NAM AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY
(THE NAM TOTALLY DRIES OUT) AS IT MOVES ACROSS EAST OF THE MTNS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE PREVAILING N/NW DOWNSLOPE WINDS YIELDING MUCH
DRIER PROFILE/STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT. HENCE...POPS
REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH BETTER CHANCE IN THE MTN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN BY 2-3 DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT WEAK
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE U.S. MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE QUIET A BIT BY TUE...WITH THE GFS EARLIER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE TUE
INTO FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT RATHER WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WED...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY THU.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
MON INTO TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SELY
FLOW...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE DIURNAL BUOYANCY...WE
WILL SEE SOLID CHANCE OF PULSE TYPE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...FAVORING IN THE MTN ZONES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH A
COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WED YIELDING
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH RETURNS ON
THURSDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISB RESTRICITONS DUE TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA.
FEW/SCT HIGH CIRRUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SCT LOW VFR CU AS HEATING BUILDS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN IN THE PBL.  EXPECTING A BKN CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF PEAK HEATING...ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND TSRA POTENTIAL.  BACKED UP BY ONE HOUR
AND KEPT PREVIOUS TSRA MENTION IN THE FORM OF A TEMPO FROM 19-23Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND IN THE
5-8KTS RANGE BEFORE CALMING THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...FEW TO SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE ALL SITES EXPERIENCE DEVELOPING CU THROUGH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY.  KEPT PREVIOUS WX MENTIONS AT ALL SITES FOR
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF TEMPO
OR PROB30 DEPENDING ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE AT THE SITE.  ADDED
PROB30 NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR KAVL AS NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR
RESTRICITONS POSSIBLE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY AND IN THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MIXING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-210830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
427 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW FRANKLIN           35.20N 83.41W
06/19/2014                   MACON              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AT BRYSON CITY RD AND AIRPORT RD AND LEE
            TALENT RD AND AIRPORT RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             4 SW FRANKLIN           35.14N 83.43W
06/19/2014  E1.50 INCH       MACON              NC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            PING PONG HAIL CARTOOGECHAYE AREA.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

NCZ048>050-201545-
MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YANCEY...MITCHELL AND
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...

AT 1102 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF RAMSEYTOWN...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RAMSEYTOWN...
  BURNSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3608 8209 3584 8212 3592 8258 3596 8257
      3598 8254 3598 8251 3602 8245 3606 8243
      3609 8240

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1137 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTER                 34.71N 81.21W
06/19/2014                   CHESTER            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON PARK DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

NCZ505-506-201730-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1245 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM EDT...

AT 1241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLD FORT...OR 7 MILES WEST OF MARION...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MARION...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3575 8190 3570 8186 3568 8185 3553 8189
      3552 8197 3555 8200 3553 8203 3560 8226
      3572 8223 3573 8220 3577 8217

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

NCZ507-508-201815-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 119 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF OLD FORT...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE LURE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3535 8184 3529 8201 3541 8215 3540 8221
      3549 8224 3549 8223 3551 8223 3553 8218
      3552 8214 3553 8209 3553 8203 3555 8200

07