Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 17, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO NEARLY STATIONARY
UPDRAFTS.  MODEST CAPE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL FAVOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  FOR THE MOST PART...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
SUBSEVERE...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DUE
TO DCAPE ACROSS THE REGION IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG.  DID MAKE SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE.  DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY
DESPITE NEARLY THE SAME PATTERN.  ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND A LEE TROUGH
PERSISTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT
STEERING FLOW SUPPORTING SLOW MOVING CELLS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH MORNING FOG MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND OTHER SITES THAT RECEIVE A SOAKING FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SHOW AS MUCH INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AS
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE A BIT BETTER...ALLOWING CELLS TO MOVE MORE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MUCH LIKE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE RETROGRADES
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WESTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL FRONT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA. HENCE...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THAT MEANS HOT TEMPS AND A DAILY DOSE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK
IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND THE LEE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROMINENT. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING HEIGHTS
TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL PROMOTE NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND....BUT THEN BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY.  THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW THE MCS TRACK TO SHIFT SWD WHICH GIVES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM EITHER A MCS OR
FROM OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE WPC
SURFACE PROGS INDICATE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE
THROUIGH THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE LEE TROUGH LOOKS
PROMINENT ON BOTH THE ECM AND GFS EACH DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. USED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO POPULATE
GRIDS WHICH IS A BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS, WPC AND CONTINUITY. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
BY NEXT MONDAY BY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST TO THE
WEST...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE EXITS TO CARRY A TEMPO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICITONS. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
DAYBREAK RESTRICITONS...BUT A GOOD SOAKING FROM A THUNDERSTORM WOULD
ALTER THE OUTLOOK FOR MORNING CIG AND VSBY PROBLEMS. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO ENOUGH TO CARRY A TEMPO AT ALL SITES...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICITIONS. DAYBREAK FOG AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LIKE THIS MORNING. ANY FOOTHILL
SITE THAT GETS SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WOULD FACE DAYBREAK RESTRICITONS
AS WELL. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH W WINDS EARLY
AT KAND...W WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KHKY...AND KAVL WHERE THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NW BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
549 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE MID TO
LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

NCZ053-064-065-171815-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 215
PM EDT...

AT 128 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT PISGAH...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ETOWAH...

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE.
OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH
AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING WIRED ELECTRONIC DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES
BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3529 8250 3527 8281 3535 8281 3538 8279
      3541 8274 3543 8275 3544 8278 3547 8280
      3549 8279 3554 8254

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE LONG CREEK        34.71N 83.23W
06/16/2014                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT UNITY CHURCH RD AND WIT WOULD FARM RD

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE HUNTERSVILLE       35.43N 80.82W
06/16/2014                   MECKLENBURG        NC   PUBLIC

            FEW LARGE LIMBS 2 IN DIAMETER DOWN

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 W ROCK HILL           34.94N 81.10W
06/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       YORK               SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             2 E KINGS MOUNTAIN STAT 35.13N 81.33W
06/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       YORK               SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW HAILSTONES OF AROUND AN
            INCH IN DIAMETER OR QUARTER SIZED. HAIL FELL FOR AROUND
            10 MINUTES MAKING THE GROUND WHITE. WIND GUST TO AROUND
            30 MPH.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

NCZ501-502-172115-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
438 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PATTERSON...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF LENOIR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PATTERSON...
  KINGS CREEK...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8146 3608 8144 3607 8140
      3605 8138 3602 8133 3601 8133 3588 8159
      3605 8168 3613 8157 3613 8155