Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
REACHING THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATTERN CONTINUES FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WEAKENING UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY THE COLDER 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AND POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION.

MODELS BRING MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BEST TIMING FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...ROUGHLY LINING UP
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD...WILL BE IN MORNING ON
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THIS TIME
FRAME BUT OTHERWISE LIKELY OR HIGHER PROBABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL RAMP THE PROBABILITY UP AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. STARTING OUT MILD ON THURSDAY
SO EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GET WARM ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SLOW TO MOVE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY BLUE
RIDGE EAST ON FRIDAY GIVEN SOME WEAK LEE TROFFINESS. HOWEVER
EXACTLY WHERE AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP
REMAINS IFFY GIVING TIMING ISSUES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES SO
BASICALLY KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH EMBEDDED LOW LIKELYS FAR WEST
THURSDAY EVENING AND VA PIEDMONT FRIDAY FOR NOW. TEMPS TO REMAIN
SEASONAL BUT MUGGY UNDER LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS.

NEXT WEAK UPSTREAM 5H TROF WILL FINALLY BUMP THE RESIDUAL
UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FAINT SURFACE COOL
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTH AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH WHILE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE
SE AROUND THE HIGH ELSW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY
SOUTHERN...SW SECTIONS SATURDAY AND MOSTLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH
SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE PASSING FAINT
BOUNDARY SATURDAY ESPCLY NORTH WHERE MAY GET INTO A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW OTRW RANGE FROM 75-80 WEST TO MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A WEAK SURGE OF DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SE
FLOW WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE
A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. 5H HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE SE STATES
ALLOWING A MORE SW TO EVENTUAL WESTERLY TRAJECTORY TO TAKE PLACE.
THIS GIVEN LACK OF MUCH SURFACE SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION
BECOME MORE DIURNAL/ISOLATED BY MID WEEK WITH ONLY A WEAK LEE
TROUGH OUT EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK PERTURBATION...REMNANT OF AN OLD 5H
VORT...SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH
MAY ENHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO KEPT OVERALL CHANCE POPS
ALTHOUGH COULD BE LESS PENDING LATER RUNS. MAIN ASPECT FOR THE
EXTENDED WILL BE WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 85H
VALUES RISE TO ABOVE +20C. THIS SUPPORTS MOSTLY 80S SUNDAY-
MONDAY...THEN SOME LOW/MID 90S EAST AS MOISTURE DECREASES SOME
AND THE FLOW TURNS MORE DOWNSLOPISH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS REGIONWIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH STORMS CLUSTERING TOGETHER
IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS.

SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES AFTER
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAKENS.  INTO
THE WEEKEND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LONGER
PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AWOS EQUIPMENT FOR BLACKSBURG VA...KBCB...HAS BEEN UPGRADED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

VAZ007-009-WVZ042>045-120400-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH THE
SO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

NCZ004>006-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-120400-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

NCZ001>003-018>020-120400-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

NCZ006-VAZ044-058-112100-
CASWELL NC-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
402 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CASWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAMER...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25
  MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
  ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PROVIDENCE...
  SOUTH BOSTON...
  TURBEVILLE...
  YANCEYVILLE...
  AND INGRAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7895 3654 7913 3642 7914 3635 7925
      3646 7943 3689 7910 3672 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 217DEG 20KT 3647 7929

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

NCZ001-002-018-019-112100-
WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-ALLEGHANY NC-WILKES NC-
406 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WATAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN ASHE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  WESTERN WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
  NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
  AT 40 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN
  ADDITION...THESE STORMS WERE MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
  LOCATIONS AND WERE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. WATER WILL LIKELY
  POND ON ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
  STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DEEP GAP...
  MC GRADY...
  WILBAR...
  LAUREL SPRINGS...
  AND SPARTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8139 3607 8141 3607 8144 3609 8145
      3609 8147 3610 8150 3610 8152 3612 8154
      3612 8162 3658 8138 3657 8104 3603 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 205DEG 35KT 3630 8138

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW LYNCHBURG CITY    37.35N 79.17W
06/11/2014                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CRANE TOPPLED OVER AT LIBERTY UNIVERSITY. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             FAIRFIELD               37.88N 79.30W
06/11/2014  E1.75 INCH       ROCKBRIDGE         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFIELD               37.88N 79.30W
06/11/2014                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            LINES DOWN ON BORDEN GRANT TRAIL. TREE DOWN ON N LEE HWY.

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIMBERLAKE              37.32N 79.25W
06/11/2014                   CAMPBELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

AMS