Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, February 21, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF OF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ON THURSDAY

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI... SVR WX WILL CONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN
THE ENHANCED SRH VALUES AND BOUNDARY IN VICINITY...OR SMALL HAIL
WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -15C AND FZL 12-13KFT. BASED ON HIGH RES
MODELS NSSL WRF AND WRF NMM...EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE
1-4 PM WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR AND 4-7 PM TO THE EAST.

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH NW FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 40 INLAND AND MID TO UPR 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST OVER
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RANGE GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 50S OBX ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM A COOL
START IN THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 70 BY THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY'S READINGS. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY WITH A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. HAVE
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AND WILL
HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SECOND WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING. STRONG S/SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY 00Z FRIDAY EVENING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN CONTG
ON SAT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SHOW S/SW WINDS
15-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AND SEAS 4-6FT. S/SW WINDS WILL
PEAK AT 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 5-8FT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WITH SCA TO EXTEND 2-3 HOURS INCLUDES ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. NORTHERLY FLOW 15KT OR LESS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA DURING MONDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS ON THE WATERS DURING MONDAY. AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
AND DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS
LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
357 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-220900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
357 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 1 AND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.